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Zeldyrr

Frost Cataclysm Discussion [4.0 thread]

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That explains it! You made the mistake of listening to me and my junky sim! That'll learn ya! There must be something horribly wrong with my sim's mana model, but there's probably no point in trying to figure out what it is at this point.

And yes, we're in total agreement on the glyphs. The only question really was whether Ice Lance beat Frostbolt, and so far in both my own sim and in SimulationCraft, it does not.

You really can't compromise on Ignite at this point either. It was iffy to begin with, unless you were in quite a casual raid group, but now that it's correctly working with FFO, I don't think there's any way around it. The mitigating factor is that since we're switching to Mage Armor, we can recover two utility points from Enduring Winter. I was feeling pretty strongly this morning that at least one of those points should go into Reactive Barrier, now that it has about 75% less suck due to the change to its proc rules. I hear this evening that its absorption has been nerfed; if that's a leveling curve change, no big deal, but if it holds at 85, it might matter and make that point a more difficult choice.

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My biggest concern is still with frost, and why there is such a difference between SimCraft, and Magegraf.

Same stats from Simcraft, plugged into Magegraf.

Frost;

Simcraft; 22,962

Magegraf; 24,137

Only thing I could really tell from simcraft, is that there are 21 water elemental-freeze's listed, 300s (fight duration) / 25 (CD on pet freeze) + 1 (initial pet freeze off the start) = 13 * 2 (FoF charges per pet freeze) = 26.

Obviously there's no logical way that you can get 21 pet-freeze's in during that short period of time, so I assume thats just the bonus FoF charges listed in Simcraft?

Even if you did add the extra 5 FoF charges from the water elemental, im not convinced if that would make up the gap. To be honest, I don't even know if Magegraf is including trinket procs either, which would skew the answers even more. So one of you has to have some more serious information incorrect, yea?

Edit; Added in the "unbuffed" stats to Magegraf, results came out;

Simcraft; 22,962

Magegraf; 20,399

Which would be fairly close, if my assumption that trinkets arent included as you can't exactly select them on Magegraf. However, that skews the hell out of fire between the two.

Simcraft; 26,093

Magegraf; 20,476

Not that my results should merit much thought, as I didn't record any scorch data before beta closed, nor did I get the opportunity to gather any information on glyphed FFB as frost either.

But without including Evo into frost Im getting the two spec's a little closer together (related more towards Magegraf), but dps counts much higher (closer to Simcraft)

Same stats from Simcrafts gear I have;

Fire; 25,940

Frost/Ignite Spec; 25,053

If that makes anything more complicated for you, sorry. All my answers also have even amounts of spells casted, as opposed to 56,4 Frostbolts, I have 56, etc etc.

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I don't think you're reading the Freeze results right. I show 9.2 Freeze casts under the Count column. It's not casting on every cooldown, because it's waiting for all charges to be burned. An improvement in logic would be to use Ice Lance to burn the charges to zero as soon as the Freeze cooldown comes up, but at the moment it doesn't appear that the sim permits action conditions to be based on the status of pet spells. I'll see if someone can help me get that implemented.

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Yeah, that could represent a 15-16% increase in FOF charges. I don't know how to implement a way to check another entity's cooldowns in your own priority list, so I'm dropping a note to the group to see if anyone can fix it.

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Which would be fairly close, if my assumption that trinkets arent included as you can't exactly select them on Magegraf. However, that skews the hell out of fire between the two.

Simcraft; 26,093

Magegraf; 20,476

Yeah, I don't have the trinket procs implemented yet. If they keep up with the standard fare that should be fairly quick once I get a list of relevant items. As for the discrepancy, first thing to make sure of is if that simcraft result is for single target only. Aside from that it could be a difference in the way we estimate combustion usage, but can't be sure. Magegraf lets you link a results page directly, so if you could just paste the link you used to get that result all the relevant information will be here for everyone to scrutinize.

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I've been reading the last result of Lhivera's sim and I have found that your not crit capped. I wonder why. Is it because of not using Molten Armor ? Is it because of the T11-372 not have enough stat to reforge to crit ? Maybe the choice of BiS item is not quite good.

If I studies a little more :

  • Ice Lance is crit cap (98.8%) because of 2pT11's bonus (I exclude "move" fight").
  • Deep Freeze is at 84%, so it's 5% below soft cap.
  • FFB is at ~70%. It's means that you cast a lot of it without FoF (I exclude "move" fight").

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If FFB becomes a substantial part of a Frost mages damage, does that make Firepower a possible talent choice? Does it also affect Frostfire Orb?

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FFB is definitely not being cast without FOF; the Damage per Resource is 0, which means it's never consuming mana. There's something wrong with the crit calculations. FFB's direct damage is missing 5% crit somewhere, and its ticks are critting at the same rate, where they should be critting at the same rate as Frostfire Orb. I'll ask folks to look into that.

The FFB crit issue and the pet cooldown conditional issue could represent a pretty significant chunk of DPS between the two of them.

Edit: Scratch that. It's partly a priority list issue. Before switching to Mage Armor, I started letting FFB cast whether FOF was up or not to try and conserve a bit of mana. That's not necessary anymore.

Edit 2: Priority list change gives the expected crit rate, but no DPS increase -- the extra crits are balanced by the fewer casts. Guess you may as well use the proc when it arrives, since you're banking an FOF charge anyway and it'll usually be up. Will let you go a little longer before evocating.

There's still a problem with the ticks, though -- they're critting at the same rate as FFB.

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I slight correction to simcraft fire model,

double hot_streak_chance = -1.7106 * s -> total_crit() + 0.7803;

A couple of changes, first the chance of HS is affected by your crit rate including gear and buffs, but not including target debuffs nor spell glyphs, so it should actually be total_crit() - (5% target debuffs) - (fireball glyph when applicable).

See http://elitistjerks.com/f75/t104767-fire_cataclysm_discussion_updated_4_01_a/p12/#post1766318

The second is very minor, the thread in question that listed the linear approximation for t1 HS actually used -1.7106c + 0.7893 not 0.7803. That said this point isn't really important since the latest data collected was from the beta builds which from then could have changed.

Also the whole simcraft discussion should probably have a thread of it's own, rather than hijacking Frost. The best option would be to create a thread for Rawr / Simcraft so all modeling / simulation discussion should be moved there.

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I have a question. Why mastery seem so poor for the frost spec ? Is it because of the lower proc rate ?

For a few day, I have been wondering if it will be possible to obtain the cirt soft-cap without Molten Armor in full 372. The better I have obtain is 17.5% (no talent, buff and debuff). Wowhead's profiler seem to be on maintenance, so I have to wait to put the link here.

Globaly, I have obtain :

  • Intel : 4651
  • Stamina : 5874
  • Spell Power : 7236
  • Hit : 16.9%
  • Haste : 10.2%
  • Crit : 17.5%
  • Mastery : 14.01

edit: it's before talent, buff and debuff. If we add it, crit will be 30.5%, 91.5% crit rate on frozen target.

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Correction to my previous post: FFB is indeed sometimes casting without FOF. That's a change I made while trying to make Frost a bit more efficient before switching to Mage Armor. I have switched it back, though frankly it didn't make any detectable difference in the results.

However, while the devs were helpfully getting pet-referencing conditionals working, I discovered that Improved Freeze was not working properly. Fixing that improved DPS by about 700, and then using the new conditionals to burn off FOF charges with Ice Lance as soon as Freeze's cooldown was up bumped it up another 300. New results running now, should populate over the next half hour or so.

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Also the whole simcraft discussion should probably have a thread of it's own, rather than hijacking Frost. The best option would be to create a thread for Rawr / Simcraft so all modeling / simulation discussion should be moved there.

Would love to see this. Who's prepared to make a new Cataclysm Mage Simulcraft / Rawr / Magegraf thread: Place for consolidated discussion, feedback and analysis of all modelling and sims. Perhaps someone who has a fortè in this area... Vontre, Kavan, Lhivera? (Edit - Lhivera said he'll make this thread later tonight)

Currently said discussion regarding the various sims - is being spread across the three spec threads in disjointed fashion. We're all very interested in this topic, want to keep track of the latest trends and results - and help with development / improvements for respective sims where possible. This would make it easier to accomplish all that.

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Found another bug I think, if you don't select Improved Hot-Streak but do have the normal version it still stops casting pyroblasts.

EDIT: also something wonky going on with the dots, might be with the dd spells as well.

As a L80 gnome mage, naked, no buffs or target debuffs, with the normal Fire spec, glyphs where MA, Pyro and Fireball (183 spp, character sheet and simcraft):

[TABLE]spell|live|simcraft

LB| 598|616

LB DoT| 702|739

Pyroblast!| 2009.5|2153

Pyroblast! DoT| 329|351

[/TABLE]

(1390 spp)

[TABLE]spell|live|simcraft

LB| 1015|1046

LB DoT| 1190|1254

Pyroblast!| 4037.5|4349

Pyroblast! DoT| 492|527

[/TABLE]

EDIT2:

Because I was curious as to what was going on I wasted a bit of money respeccing, the following were tested with 1390 spellpower: (Living Bomb)

Unspecced: 2740 (that's uncastable just the tooltip) (X)

Fire - Fire Power - Critical Mass: 4112 (X*1.5)

Fire + Fire Power - Critical Mass: 4236 (X*1.5*1.03)?

Fire - Fire Power + Critical Mass: 4624 have no idea lets say (Y)

Fire + Fire Power + Critical Mass: 4764 (Y*1.03)?

As you can see the multipliers don't exactly make any sense, or at least not anything I can see at this hour. Also it's probably too much fire for a frost thread.

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I propose a 272 BiS for the Frost spec.

[TABLE=head]Item | slot | Int | Hit | Haste | Crit | Mastery | Enchant

Signet of High Arcanist Savor | ring | 190 | | 121 | | 131

Signet of the Fifth Circle H | ring | 215 | 57 | 143 | | 86

Theresa's Booklight H | ranged | 121 | 81 | | 32 | 49

Book of Binding Will H | off-hand | 215 | 143 | 86 | 57 | | 100 Int

Maldo's Sword Cane H | main hand | 165 | 44 | | 110 | 66 | 500 Int for 12s

Bell of Enraging Resonance H | trinker | | | | 363 | |

Theralion's Mirror H | trinket | 363

Valiona's Medallion H | neck | 215 | 57 | 143 | | 86

Shadow of Dread H | back | 215 | 57 | | 143 | 86 | 65 Crit

Firelord's Mantle H | shoulder | 266 | 171 | 115 | 76 | | 50 Int & 25 haste

Flame Pillar Leggings H | legs | 345 | 257 | | 217 | | 95 Int & 80 Stam

Firelord's Gloves H | hands | 266 | 76 | | 171 | 115 | 65 Mastery

Einhorn's Galoshes H | feet | 266 | | 115 | 76 | 171 | 50 Hit

Bracers of the Dark Pool H | wrist | 215 | 143 | | 143 | | 65 Crit

Firelord's Hood H | head | 325 | 94 | 217 | | 143 | 60 Int & 35 Crit

Firelord's Robes H | chest | 345 | 98 | 129 | 247 | | 20 all Stats

Belt of Arcane Storms H | waist | 266 | 76 | 115 | 171 | | 1 socket

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=head]Meta | Red | Blue | Yellow

Chaotic | 3x Potent | 4x Rigid | 3x Piercing[/TABLE]

[TABLE=head]Hit | Haste | Crit | Mastery

1745 | 1204 | 2230 | 877

17.0% | 9.4% | 20.4% | 12.89[/TABLE]

It don't include: racial, profession, talent and raid buff.

No Wowhead's profiler! It's capped to 80 and gem is still very bugged.

edit: I made the 346 and 359 BiS but I have no time these weekend. I will post it on Monday. In 359, I can obtain Hit and Crit cap but haste has drown to ~7%. On 346, Crit is only 18.8% and again, haste and mastery is six feets under (6% and 9.5).

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They've stated they're undoing the change to the chaotic meta requirement in a future patch, so you can replace the sad gems with happy ones.

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I have a question regarding the priorities as they stand right now. Currently, if you get an FoF proc with no BF proc, you will cast Ice Lance. FFB is reserved for instances in which you have both FoF and BF up. It seems to me that, factoring in Ignite and the new FFB glyph, that there should be a point at which a slowcast FFB will do more than throwing an IL and part of a FB.

The math currently is crude, but the assumptions are:

1) Crit soft-capped, so FFB and IL will both crit

2) FFB glyph, normal spec taken (2/8/31)

3) Haste is not factored in, since it should cancel on both sides

4) In the time it takes to slowcast a FFB, you can get one IL and half of a FB in.

Ice Lance has some great scaling from the doubling effect and Mastery. However, given the extra scaling that FFB has from Ignite, the Glyph (15% + 3% of the non-ignite damage due to the dot), and the Mastery, it appears that a guaranteed crit FFB is approximately comparable (or even better) than an IL plus a full FB. Since you only get half a FB in that span of time, and not a full one, I'm questioning whether IL should ever be cast at all, other than movement situations. If you also factor in increasing levels of Mastery, which FB does not benefit from at all, the difference should become more pronounced.

What I am unable to factor is the chance of procs. Now, currently, FFB is still generating FoF and BF procs, even though the chill effect is removed by the Glyph. I do not know whether this is intended, or a bug. If it is intended, then there are no missed proc chances to factor in.

In a practical setting, with my mage's current (terrible) gear at 80, from the numbers I am seeing, FFB would be a better choice over even a full FB + crit IL if I had the talent points for Ignite.

If this has already been addressed, I apologize for the redundancy, but I didn't see it anywhere else in the thread. If it does end up being the case that IL is never the correct choice once crit cap is reached, it begs the question of whether or not Blizz intended that, and a change may be imminent.

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even though the chill effect is removed by the Glyph. I do not know whether this is intended, or a bug

My understanding is that Glyphed Frostfire bolt still intentionally applies a "Non-chilling chill effect" - for lack of a better way to describe it. That is, it applies no chill in the movement snare context - but still applies a chill (which is just set to a -0% movement speed penality) which allows for Fingers of Frost interaction.

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Makes sense, given that they probably don't want you to be penalized for using the Glyph. So that means there aren't any missed proc chances to factor in. You'd actually gain more with the FFB cast, since you only get half a FB cast in the same amount of time.

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Brain Freeze

When Frostfire Bolt is instant, it can benefit from Fingers of Frost. Brain Freeze cannot be triggered by Frostfire Bolt.

These two rules are set in the tooltip of Brain Freeze. Hardcasting it will not proc instant FFB, nor will it benefit from FoF. It will therefore not shatter, and thus not be worth casting.

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I have a question regarding the priorities as they stand right now. Currently, if you get an FoF proc with no BF proc, you will cast Ice Lance. FFB is reserved for instances in which you have both FoF and BF up. It seems to me that, factoring in Ignite and the new FFB glyph, that there should be a point at which a slowcast FFB will do more than throwing an IL and part of a FB.

The main reason a "slowcast" FFB is not superior to Ice Lance on a Fingers of Frost proc is because Fingers of Frost does not affect a regular-cast FFB. Fingers of Frost only affects the Brain Freeze'd, instant FFB, and it says so on the tooltip.

Brain Freeze - Spell - World of Warcraft

Second sentence from the last, "When Frostfire Bolt is instant, it can benefit from Fingers of Frost."

So without the Fingers of Frost benefit (and it won't even eat up a charge of FoF either), a regular FFB will do... the regular amount of damage, so there's a lot more ground it has to cover before it can outdamage the instant Ice Lance. If it ever could. That's something I'll have to do some figuring on.

What I am unable to factor is the chance of procs. Now, currently, FFB is still generating FoF and BF procs, even though the chill effect is removed by the Glyph. I do not know whether this is intended, or a bug. If it is intended, then there are no missed proc chances to factor in.

What Tyrian suggested about the "non-slowing chill effect" sounds right on.

Consider what the Glyph of Frostfire says: "but no longer reduces the victim's movement speed." It definitely doesn't say it doesn't chill anymore, and generally (or at least I'm viewing the past with rose-tinted glasses) Blizzard picks their tooltip words carefully.

Frostfire Bolt certainly does proc FoF, but I've never seen it proc Brain Freeze. If it did, that would be unintended, as the Brain Freeze talent says that FFB can't proc it.

Here, I poked a target dummy for 5 minutes with FFB only. FoF procs galore, but 0 BF. One could argue RNG, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

12/5 16:34:48.179 SPELL_CAST_START,0x0600000003B2 - Frostfire Bolt testing

Edit: Well, I took far too long in typing this up. Someone already beat me to the punch.

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