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Zakalwe

Dragonwrath, Tarecgosa's Rest - Warlock specific analysis

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It seems as though the staff is no longer benefiting twice (double-dipping) from Curse of the Elements. I just tested it briefly on a training dummy which was afflicted by Curse of the Elements...

9/13 01:49:12.810 SPELL_PERIODIC_DAMAGE,0x03800000007EB4A9,"Moop",0x511,0x0,0xF1307F9A00001407,"Training Dummy",0x10a28,0x0,30108,"Unstable Affliction",0x20,3330,3329,32,0,0,0,nil,nil,nil

9/13 01:49:13.624 SPELL_DAMAGE,0x03800000007EB4A9,"Moop",0x511,0x0,0xF1307F9A00001407,"Training Dummy",0x10a28,0x0,101085,"Wrath of Tarecgosa",0x40,3330,3329,64,0,0,0,nil,nil,nil

I checked using Unstable Affliction, Corruption, Bane of Agony, and Bane of Doom - the outcome was the same.

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I just tested how the 4-set T12 bonus ("Apocalypse") interacts with the staff's proc, however, I forgot to turn on my /combatlog so I don't have any raw data - instead, I can only provide a screenshot of my in-game combat log...

staff_t12_test.png

I was standing at maximum range, chain casting Shadow Bolts, and waiting a few seconds between casts to see if the staff would proc. Since the 4-set bonus is applied at the end of the cast, while, in contrast, the staff procs on damage, it was relatively easy to test. In the screenshot, I began casting Shadow Bolt (at 14:27:12), it hit the dummy (at 14:27:16), the staff duplicated my Shadow Bolt (not shown in the combat log), I gained the 4-set bonus (at 14:27:17), then the duplicated Shadow Bolt hit the dummy (at 14:27:19).

Conclusion: The 4-set T12 bonus can proc from the staff's proc, as previously assumed.

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If this is the case and the trinket is able to reach 52% uptime for an elemental shaman, it should be able to reach some pretty high numbers for a demonology warlock aswell considering the procc chance for us is 17% and the fact that the procc keeps up 1700 mastery if im right might actually make it a BiS trinket if you use demon form and doomguard at the correct time. Any warlock with the staff that will be able to test this?

heroic Theralion's Mirror gives you 2178 mastery, not 1700.

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Dragonwrath, Tarecgosa’s Rest: The chance for this item’s effect to be triggered has been reduced.
Just did a quick test on eu ptr(us servers anyway) and that hotfix seems to not be "live" yet - contrary to some posts on mmo champ boards.

World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis - 748 procs out of 4377 dot ticks, around 17%.

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The proc rate nerf went in with the latest PTR build. Initial testing shows the new proc rate at around 8.5%, so it's essentially been cut in half.

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The proc rate nerf went in with the latest PTR build. Initial testing shows the new proc rate at around 8.5%, so it's essentially been cut in half.

I can confirm that, quick test yielded 474 procs out of 5414 dot ticks for a ~8.75% proc rate.

Looking at the recently added ilvl 410 staves it seems that it'll still be bis by a small margin even when taking higher heroic deathwing ilvl into account - barring weapons with some crazy procs that we've seen them playing with in previous PTR build(s).

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The proc rate nerf went in with the latest PTR build. Initial testing shows the new proc rate at around 8.5%, so it's essentially been cut in half.

Wow, that's an absolutely brutal change. I certainly see the need to lower the proc rate, as it makes the staff scale too well, but I'd be nice to see a flat stat buff to the staff to compensate. Something along the lines of lower the proc rate to 8.5%, but up the ilvl to 404.

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Well, it's clearly un big nerf, as DTR doesn't scale that well.

A 2H weapon represents ~30% of a caster DPS

A simple sim with simulationcraft proves it

- Warlock_Affliction_T12H = 36657 dps

- Warlock_Affliction_T12H without a weapon = 25978 dps, or ~70.8% of the nominal DPS (but this is a 397 ilvl weapon)

The reason is simple : it also represents ~30% of the total spell power of a caster.

If the current BiS gear setup without DTR is equivalent to 100%, then with DTR we have 100*1.11 = 111% (if DTR is a total 11% DPS increase)

Now, let's increase the average gear ilvl by 43 to be at 435 (this is a 50% stats increase)

We can simulate it by adding a tabard with those stats to the gear list (existing gear stats * 0.5)

tabard=ilvl435gear,stats=485mastery_1098haste_753crit_1393sp_2962int

Final DPS : 56836, or 55% more DPS (155% of current dps)

So an affli warlock full 435 ilvl should do 55% more dps than a current full 392 ilvl warlock

What if he had the DTR instead of his 435 ilvl weapon ?

70% DPS from gear -> 70*1.55 = 108.5%

30% DPS from DTR without proc -> 30%

108.5+30 = 138.5% of current gear DPS without DTR proc, and 138.5*1.11 ~= 153,73%, which is less than 155%

So any ilvl 435 weapon is better than the current DTR

In fact, an ilvl 432 weapon should be at the same level.

If DTR's proc is halved, then a rapid calculation tells us that a 21% ((70*1.21 + 30)*1.055 = 121) stats increase is sufficient, which is a 19 to 20 ilvl increase.

So with this nerf, any DeathWing weapon will be as powerfull as DTR, not accounting any special proc.

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As a response to previous post.

A fast simulation tells me that currently Dragonwrath's proc is worth roughly 5000 dps for an affliction warlock in Best in Slot gear. I am not much into the mathematics behind a proper simulation but bare with me here on this napkin math I am having.

Those numbers are estimates but serve the purpose of their goal.

- Dragonwrath's proc provides 5000 DPS.

- Halved proc provides 2500 DPS

- One point of Spell Power is worth 2,8 dps.

- Halved proc is worth 900 Spell Power.

There is no way, based on gear scaling in the current expansion, that they will introduce a weapon that will provide additional stats with a combined value of 900 Spell Power or 2500 DPS.

Additionally, due to the nature of the Proc Scaling, it will be actually worth more in full Dragon Soul gear. I assume the simulations of incoming Best In Slot gear will be above 40,000 which will give the proc even a higher value, so I don't see how new weapons will be stronger.

Pardon me for the rough calculations, I might be wrong, but with those estimates I don't see how it will be a worse weapon. It certainly won't be an impressive weapon, but still better. Let's hope for an item level increase though, because this won't feel very Legendary.

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A little bit of additional math I've scribbled out here at work after reading plopinou's 'interesting' post.

First of all, there is no 435 iLevel gear, Deathwing Heroic drops 416 iLevel gear, which follows the precedent set by other tiers for iLevel changes.

tj1Fp.jpg

Secondly, we have data from the PTR regarding the weapons dropped by Deathwing, and whilst they are still subject to change, we can begin comparing them to the currently available weapons.

Ti'tahk, the Steps of Time and Rathrak, the Poisonous Mind are the two DPS items dropped by Deathwing, although the staff could probably be used by both healers and dpsers.

I will compare Dragonwrath, Tarecgosa's Rest to Ti'tahk, the Steps of Time as they are both Staff items, and it should be easier to draw conclusions from the results. I will also use affliction scale factors, as this spec is supposed to provide the most DPS when using Dragonwrath, however the variance between specs should not really change the ultimate outcome.

You can see here a picture of my workings with the results, however it should be noted that these scale factors were taken from the most recent Warlock patchwerk sim on simulationcraft.org. I should really have run a sim without using a weapon, and used those scale factors instead, but I am at work and it isn't really viable, however once again I do not think the results would vary that dramatically.

B4TWv.jpg

We can see from this, that based on stats alone the both staffs are quite equally matched, and if Dragonwrath was equipped with 3 epic gems at 50 intellect each, the difference in DPS between these two items would be reduced to 78.69, very little between them.

This means that the only thing left to separate the two is their procs, this could prove a bit tricker, as we don't yet know the proc rates for Ti'tahk, however if we speculate wildly and say it's got a 33% up time, that would be equivelent to 718.08 haste, ((2176/100)*33) which with these scale factors would equate to 1247.66 DPS. Dragonwraths proc only needs to be more valuable than the Stat DPS difference (257.73 or 78.69) plus the proc bonus (1247.66) for the staff to remain BiS.

Thusly, we can conclude, that if the Dragonwrath proc is worth more than 1505.39 DPS (blue gems) or 1326.35 DPS (epic gems) it will remain the best staff for the remainder of this expansion. Barring any sneaky last raid instances, or buffs/changes to Ti'tahk or it's proc.

I would say that even with the nerf, and any incoming changes, Dragonwrath will remain firmly BiS for the remainder of Cataclysm, people are far too hung up on it's item level to see it's actual stat value, and the fact the proc will scale nicely with the additional gear we gain from the Dragon Soul heroics.

*edit* I should add something about the buff affecting 3 additional people, but I'm not really sure how that's going to work or how to factor it in currently.

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Estimating Ti'tahk, the Steps of Time's uptime to 33% is quite pessimistic.

Look at it's stats, there's nothing except the mandatory spellpower.

Sho'ravon, Greatstaff of Annihilation's stats are : 249 crit rating + 357 matery rating, or 606 rating.

A 416 ilvl item should have at least a sum of 723.

Any single piece of gear of dragon soul has the maximum allowed sockets on it, but it seems there's an exception for the staves, because the 410 ones only have 1 socket.

Estimating the proc to 33%, giving only an average of 718.08 haste is simply impossible imho, but we'll gonna find out when someone grabs it.

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Estimating Ti'tahk, the Steps of Time's uptime to 33% is quite pessimistic.

Look at it's stats, there's nothing except the mandatory spellpower.

Sho'ravon, Greatstaff of Annihilation's stats are : 249 crit rating + 357 matery rating, or 606 rating.

A 416 ilvl item should have at least a sum of 723.

Any single piece of gear of dragon soul has the maximum allowed sockets on it, but it seems there's an exception for the staves, because the 410 ones only have 1 socket.

Estimating the proc to 33%, giving only an average of 718.08 haste is simply impossible imho, but we'll gonna find out when someone grabs it.

Presuming a standard internal cooldown of 5x length of proc makes 33% uptime rather optimistic, not pessimistic at all. DWT is particularly attractive as an item with no ICD, something that historically has been associated predominately with items that have a very low proc rate. Considering that Ti'tahk's proc includes a group AoE buff, it's value will be hard to evaluate until proc rate and ICD are widely known. Keeping that AoE buff in mind, speculating a 20% uptime might actually be optimistic.

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Proc rate has changed on the PTR again - after 10k samples my estimate is around 11.5% now, for all specs.

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Proc rate has changed on the PTR again - after 10k samples my estimate is around 11.5% now, for all specs.

Wouldnt that result in affliction and destruction becoming pretty equal to demonology when holding the legendary due to the higher percentage of pet damage from demonology?

EDIT:

Looking at the simcraft number 67% of demonology damage is from the player, 84% in destruction is from the player

That means destruction would get 9,65% increase

Demonology would get 7,7% increase

Quite a significant different that would actually make destruction better with the legendary I believe

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The legendary is bugged from burning embers procs and not tracking them correctly, if your counting embers towards player and not pet that is, which it appears you are.

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We can see from this, that based on stats alone the both staffs are quite equally matched, and if Dragonwrath was equipped with 3 epic gems at 50 intellect each, the difference in DPS between these two items would be reduced to 78.69, very little between them.

I mentioned this in the simcraft forum, but, what if we are hitting the soft haste cap currently in T12 raids when buffed? Wouldn't this practically negate the proc from the 416 staff, making the Legendary the logical choice?

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I mentioned this in the simcraft forum, but, what if we are hitting the soft haste cap currently in T12 raids when buffed? Wouldn't this practically negate the proc from the 416 staff, making the Legendary the logical choice?

Are you taking into consideration the haste plateaus that add extra ticks to your spells? Just because you're casting 1 second shadow bolts doesn't mean that additional haste offers no benefit.

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Are you taking into consideration the haste plateaus that add extra ticks to your spells? Just because you're casting 1 second shadow bolts doesn't mean that additional haste offers no benefit.

Yes, that's more or less what i'm talking about. I realize that as of right now the attainable haste plateau we are talking about is 30% haste (not sure as to the numerical value off the top of my head). At this point you maximize the amount of dot ticks one can obtain. So, im assuming that after this value, up until the next tick is attainable that the stat weight for haste goes way down once this value is reached. So, keeping that in mind, if we can get there with the legendary equipped, wouldn't it's proc have more value (dps-wise) than the haste proc (from a personal dps pt of view)?

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Apologies if I missed that, but did anyone do an analysis of actual DTR proc rate in 4.3? SimulationCraft thinks it was decreased by a third (their actual numbers are 1/6 rate before patch, with a 0.67 coefficient after), but that slightly contradicts my own testing, which admittedly might be off given a relatively small sample size. Still, my raid parses give a proc rate of between 7.6% and 9.7%, noticeably less than 10.67% assumed by SC.

Or perhaps my methodology is wrong - I simply divide the number of procs by the total number of spell ticks, hit and crit - which assumes that the proc rate is equal for all dots, but more importantly, that it is the same for direct damage spells (for which the proc rate is much harder to empirically calculate) as it is for dots.

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We tested it, with enormous sample sizes, on the PTR, after the nerf was announced. If you post a link to your logs I can double check that you're calculating it correctly.

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Apologies if I missed that, but did anyone do an analysis of actual DTR proc rate in 4.3? SimulationCraft thinks it was decreased by a third (their actual numbers are 1/6 rate before patch, with a 0.67 coefficient after), but that slightly contradicts my own testing, which admittedly might be off given a relatively small sample size. Still, my raid parses give a proc rate of between 7.6% and 9.7%, noticeably less than 10.67% assumed by SC.

Or perhaps my methodology is wrong - I simply divide the number of procs by the total number of spell ticks, hit and crit - which assumes that the proc rate is equal for all dots, but more importantly, that it is the same for direct damage spells (for which the proc rate is much harder to empirically calculate) as it is for dots.

How do you track procs from direct damage spells on your logs ?

I watched your tuesday logs : World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis

If we only take into account dot procs there is a 9.61% proc rate but this might be because the sample size is not big enough (6783 ticks, i'm assuming that spells from Hagara's encounter doesn't trigger procs).

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We tested it, with enormous sample sizes, on the PTR, after the nerf was announced. If you post a link to your logs I can double check that you're calculating it correctly.

Ah, that's good to know. So the current 11.2% proc rate is the result of that testing?

Even then, it would be nice to see testing done on live, since unannounced changes happen all the time, especially with server-side things like weapon proc, where we can't really datamine the actual numbers.

Here's the link to the log from night with the lowest calculated proc : World of Logs - Real Time Raid Analysis.

I calculate the proc rate by dividing the number of Wrath of Tarecgosa hits by the sum of the number of total tick hits and total tick crits.

For the report in question, that is 881 / (8107 + 3540), which gives 7.56%, or only two-thirds of what the SC proc rate is. Since two-thirds of two-thirds is about a half, and the original PTR nerf was about that, I'm wondering whether they re-instated the original nerf. Of course, it's completely possible that I'm calculating procs in the wrong way; or that small sample size is affecting the result; or that my underlying assumptions (that the proc rate is the same for all spells, and specifically for direct damage spells as compared to dots) are incorrect.

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