# [Resto] It's Raining Heals 5.4

## 141 posts in this topic

i'm not sure what you mean by that. but from what i understand, the "unlucky streak" prevention was for item droppings in lfr and quite possibly has nothing to do with this.

if you are referring to that horrible post about p = RPPM*(1+Haste)*seconds_from_last_proc/60

it's a laymans explanation of what the poisson process does already with the rate.

"Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and itâ€™s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, youâ€™ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If youâ€™ve been out of combat for a few min, and itâ€™s been 5 min since your last successful proc, youâ€™ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance."

I understand the Poisson process, but this is a new factor on determining proc rates of trinkets.

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Real Proc Per Minute (RPPM) Trinket Changes - Forums - World of Warcraft

"Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and itâ€™s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, youâ€™ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If youâ€™ve been out of combat for a few min, and itâ€™s been 5 min since your last successful proc, youâ€™ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance."

I understand the Poisson process, but this is a new factor on determining proc rates of trinkets.

ah i see. the post is unclear again. however i assume that this factor is multiplies into your final probability. Regardless, since the chain tracks something else than the last event, the chain is not Markovian.

Moreover, the proc rate depend on time since last successful proc. The procs are therefore not iid. The process is not poisson anymore. it's easy to verify that the density is not a probability density as 16.5 x p would exceed 1 when p is anything > 16.5^-1 (hence become an event of certainty)

It seems they are just doing their own thing again. i don't understand why they would want to make something random if they don't want it to be random at all...

edit:

with the 5/10% increase and this guaranteed certainty after a period of time, the proc trinkets are clearly superior to their non-proc counterparts at these numbers. i hope everyone enjoys their 5 stacks of Cloudburst!

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We buffed Healing Rain, Chain Heal and Earthliving by 20%. Live in NA and China. Rest of the world in the next day or two.

Really good change IMO. Will make us more viable on stack fights, although we will still be near useless on fights like dark animus :( Would be worth to re-calculate CH and HR viability (for example, if it's now viable to use HR on 3 people or CH on 2 people). :)

I don't know if the 20% buff applies to base value or scaling, so I will apply it afterwards (it should be similiar results)

According to wowhead, healing rain is 1983-2358 + 19.7% of SP and it costs ~22k mana. Let's average it to 2200 + 19.7% and 22k mana.

With 40k spell power, healing rain ticks for 10k. With unleash elements, it's 13k. With the new buff, it should be 15.6k. Let's say it ticks 6 times, that's 6*15,600*n , where n is number of players standing in it (lower than 7).

I will try to put it in a table

CH is average 6,325 + 57.3% of SP.

GHW 15,181 + 137.7% of SP

NOTE: I haven't calculated crit, resurgence, riptide (chain heal) and earth shield at all, so the results (especially for GHW and CH) will vary.

Heal
|
Mana Cost
|
Healing per tick
|
HPM - 1 player
|
2 people
|
3 People
|
4 People

Healing Rain - NEW
| 21,981 | 15,600 | 4.26 | 8.5 | 12.8 | 17

Healing Rain - OLD
| 21,981 | 13,000 | 3.54 | 7.1 | 10.6 | 14.1

Chain Heal - NEW
| 13,500 | 35,094 | 2.6 | 4.42 | 5.7 | 6.58

Chain Heal - OLD
| 13,500 | 29,245 | 2.16 | 3.68 | 4.74 | 5.48

Greater Healing Wave
| 16,140 | 70,261 | 4.35 | X | X | X

[/TABLE]

For example, if you have 25% crit chance (I do, with 517 item level), the results for GHW will be like this:

70.261*2.68*0.25 = 47k heal gain. So GHW will heal for ~117k on average. Also, it will return 2212 mana per cast = it costs ~14k mana. This will net 8.35 HPM, but we also need to calculate crit for other heals, although for HR it's not that powerful because of not proccing AA and resurgence.

Don't take this table much seriously, it is really not accurate, but it seems quite possible that HR will be efficient even on 3 people (instead of 4) and CH will be usable even when there are 2 targets

Again, please correct me if I am doing this wrong, but I hope that this post will be at least a little bit useful for you :)

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The results in the table below are calculated with :

Int=20241

Crit=25.53%

Haste=25.37%

While we can leave Riptide out of rotation due to its special nature we can conclude the following assuming that every spell is under the influence of Tidal Waves :

1. HW remains the best HPM spell but the worst HPS spell save CH when it hits less than 2 targets.
2. HS remains the best HPS spell but falls behind every other spell on HPM save CH when it hits less than 3 targets.
3. GHW has very strong HPS and strong HPM.While not the best in any case it is the best spell by far for when you want a strong heal that will not cost as much as HS.
4. CH has almost double GHW HPM if it hits 4 targets making is almost as efficient as HW and slightly more HPS than GHW. If 4 targets are quaranteed it's by far a better choice than GHW in both HPM and HPS and even as mana efficient as HW.
5. HR remains our biggest and AOE healing spell. With the recent 20%buff and the old mana nerf it is our best HPM and HPS spell for 3-6 targets if it hits them for full duration without overhealing them. It is better HPM also with as less as 2 targets than every other heal save CH when it hits 4 targets and HW. As for its HPS it's our strongest healing source for 2 targets and above.

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Hello to the one who reads this.

I have been looking lately at the ticks from Healing Stream Totem that it was acting so strange lately since the current patch. Now I know about the red warning where HST and HTT depend on world ms when you have >50 MS where it ticks more often not then it should be, but I play on a constant 23 ms. Even if this was the case, here is what I've seen from my own view.

From this log only, I was on 1983 haste, which is far below what was first considered to be the first breakpoint where you gain 9 ticks. So my Healing Stream should tick 8 times. But when I look at the Expression Editor, I've received a constant 9 ticks. Expression Editor WoL 28th March

On MMO-champion, I've asked for a few more if they notice the same thing. Binkenstein responded to it once that this was already been talked out in this topic here, but I do not see anything other then the haste breakpoints were wrong what he first claimed to be and that he gave the new numbers. But the Healing Stream is unchanged, it's still at 3764.

WoL Log Emandrawkcab

11 HSTs with results as follows:

8 Ticks: 1 with Totemic Recall

9 Ticks: 6 with nothing, 1 during Time Warp with Totemic Recall, 1 with Totemic Recall, 1 partially with Lifeblood

10 Ticks: 1 partially during Time Warp

WoL Log Zahia

I currently have ~3800 haste, MTT was 7 ticks (partially during Windsong) while HST was 10 to 12 ticks for full duration. 12 ticks was with Windsong + Bloodlust, one of the 10 ticks HST didn't overlap any haste buffs.

The point I'm trying to make here though is that currently everyone is saying to go for 3764 haste. Taking the two breakpoints of HST and HTT out, there is a lot of room between 871 and 5676 haste, where you can go into a certain amount of haste that feels much more comfortable. Or, if you prefer, possibility to aim for 5676 haste after the 871 haste breakpoint. As right now, it's all dependend that you either have too much haste as you have a good pc and have a good connection or you have too little, while the other haste breakpoints are set in stone.

I don't know if this was meant to be in the Simple Questions/Answers topic, I've looked to be sure, but I still wasn't. So if this doesn't belong here, feel free to move it there.

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Ticks for HST and HTT and MTT for that matter have been somewhat illusive since 5.0 launched. Earlier in the discussion you will find examples where (as you noticed yourself) you can gain a tick without even reaching the official breakpoint. Such findings were also reported during beta testing so it comes as no surprise. We don't really know what is wrong we can only speculate and unfortunately Blizzard offers no explanation either. Breakpoints should now be correct however, I would advise anyone at this point to take a look at their logs, their latency and then determine a course of action. Personally even though my gear is marginally permitting it I have hit the 5676 haste breakpoint then allocated the rest of my points to crit and left whatever I couldn't reforge to mastery. I found that 9500 spirit was enough to sustain me in every fight so far even though last few weeks I have been inactive and will continue for a while.

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I hope a more abstract theory-crafting question/idea (albeit one focused on Resto Shaman) won't be unwelcome.

Due to the dynamic nature of healing, stat weights are obviously harder to formulate for healers. Therya has done a number of spreadsheets, but I find them rather difficult to apply directly to reforging and gemming. Resto Shaman have the added complication that the strength of our heals, and the value of one of our stats, depends on the target's current health percentage.

My question/idea is this: Both problems that make stat weights hard to calculate could, in principle, be addressed by retrospective combat log analysis. It should be possible, either with raw combat logs, or an addon designed for the purpose, to determine, for every heal cast during an actual fight, what the target's health % was. The combat log of a fight also records the specific collection of casts, including the buffs active at any time.

For a given cast, on a target with a specific health%, with a specific set of buffs, it should be possible to determine the effect of each relevant stat on the throughput. It should also be possible to track mana effects from Resurgence. If you can do it for a single cast, then you can do it for ALL the casts of a particular fight, using the actual selection of spells used and the health% of each target actually healed.

Like many DPS-related analyses, this approach would assume the effect of stat changes is incremental (in effect, everything changes linearly). Stat changes that are of order 1% or so can be assumed to have relatively minor effects (which we can try to model if we wish) on overall spell selection. Of course, this is not perfectly true, but it seems to me something approximate would still be much better than anything currently available. It would be less reliable, but maybe not completely impossible, to analyze the effect of larger changes like hitting a higher haste breakpoint.

Something similar has actually been done already to analyze the Glyph of Water Shield.

Before closing, maybe a simple example will clarify what I'm proposing.

Suppose in a particular (very short) fight, you cast Riptide once on Player A, and Healing Wave once on Player B, and then the fight ends. By post-combat log analysis, you extract the health percentages of Player A each time Riptide ticked and Player B at the moment when you cast Healing Wave.

Supposing that these data are representative of the next time you will do the same fight, it seems to me it would be possible to determine (pretty accurately) how much 1 point each stat would increase your healing throughput and/or mana regen for the fight.

The analysis for a real boss encounter will obviously involve a lot more data, but I don't see anything that would prevent doing it, in principle.

I'm not 100% certain, but a quick web search gave me the impression that the target's health cannot be directly determined from the combat log. But a custom-written, lightweight addon could certainly collect all relevant information for later analysis. It might also be possible (but probably more difficult) to determine the target's health percentage to within the necessary accuracy by the size of the actual heal in relation to the nominal value (i.e. using the Mastery bonus itself).

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There is already an addon that estimates the value of your mastery for a given fight. (see post #65, link to addon). It's not entirely accurate and I don't know what is causing it.But an addon that calculates:

• the mana gain from resurgence
• how much more mana you would have gained with x% more cri,t based on the numbers of spells used that proc resurgence
• the effect of mastery and the average increase in healing it caused
• the difference in your healing done if you went mastery to crit, possibly even including that some heals would overheal when they crit
• your average HPM and assume that you would keep that HPM with the extra amount of mana more crit/spirit would give you
• if Glyph of Watershield would have been an improvement to your mana regen
• all the mistakes you made; eg. replacing HST too early or forgetting to recall it

I think the opportunities are endless - but having a person that is good at writing an addon, together with some people who know exactly what that addon should include, in order help the most. That would be an amazing addition to the resto shaman community. I'm pretty confident Therya wouldn't mind helping (without knowing this), it's just about finding an addon writer I guess.

With the mastery addon mentioned including world of logs, this is possible and that is what some resto shamans do to perform at their highest.

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Thanks for the pointer to the addon - it is definitely a step in the direction I was thinking.

I am putzing around with the code in my private copy. The original addon just shows you the average Mastery target health multiplier weighted by the size of each heal. It is pretty easy to massage this into something a bit easier to interpret. As a start, my private version now displays:

Total healing

Fraction of total healing attributable to Mastery

(Additional) Mastery Rating required for 1% throughput increase

I healed five 5.0 bosses tonight with the +1% throughput calculation working.

The numbers for that were varying quite a bit from fight to fight, as one would expect, depending on how much damage the raid was taking and whether the fight was 2- or 3-healed. I was getting numbers ranging roughly from 750 for the "hard" kill order of Protectors in ToES (my raid group's first attempt, and first kill - barely), to 1750 for faceroll trash pulls. This was just a shakedown test, but the numbers don't seem crazy.

I also reinstalled the "Dr. Damage" addon, which wasn't working for some time but now seems to be working at some level for Resto Shaman. This addon attempts to estimate the throughput gains of each spell using spell coefficients, stats, buffs, etc. and displays it in the tooltip.

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Something similar has actually been done already to analyze the Glyph of Water Shield.

It is easy to calculate resurgence and water shield gains from WoL however admittedly you would need several hours to make a spreadsheet then input all data. A simple addon would help for that, as for WS procs I already have a spreadsheet that does exactly that and shows the difference between using WS glyph or not for each fight. You need only to input the length of the fight and the ticks of WS. It can be found at Therya Public - Water Shield.

Shamans ( as well as all the other healers ) have a harder time than DPS or Tanks when it comes to calculating stats. We could create addons to give us a complete rundown of every fight and while this would certainly be a good evaluation tool I don't think it would serve as efficiently as a tool for configuring out our stats. Every fight is different from the other and for better or worse there are other factors as well. First your healing team and the other is the fact that you keep upgrading your gear making every result even more varied. Your stats have different weight if you are raiding with a full team with disc priests and paladins and they will be different if you raid with druids and monks. Every setup will give varied results. What could be useful in this case would be gathering enough of these results and figuring out if there is a constant since we can't possibly reforge before every fight for 1% HPS of difference.

Every tool we can create to help us evaluate our performance during fights will be a welcomed addition to the tools we already have, I will see if I can find people to help us out with that.

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I think Therya is right about the results of this type of analysis being quite situational. But if you have a stable group composition, it has the advantage of actually taking that into account, in some sense.

My group downed Sha of Fear for the first time tonight, and I tested the hacked addon a bit more while healing it. I would have expected Mastery to look pretty good, since it was our set of tries as a group, and there were a lot of people at low health frequently. Also, the other healer was a Druid (no absorb) and you are usually healing alone due to Cackles.

I saw numbers between ~14-20% (19.5% was the highest) as the fraction of my throughput attributable to Mastery. Considering I had 70% Mastery (essentially I am currently gemmed/reforged for Mastery, after reaching the 12.5% buffed haste breakpoint), that seems quite low.

My point of reference is that Paladins who stack Mastery typically seem to have 25-30% of their effective healing from Illuminated Healing.

The fight is somewhat unusual in that I relied almost entirely on Riptide, HS and HST, resulting a lot of criticals from HS. Normally I use HS very sparingly.

After the raid, I further modified the addon to calculate the fraction of throughput attributable to criticals (basically 106%/206% = 0.515 of all critical heals and 100% of all AA's - since I don't have the tier set bonus - minus any overhealing), and the critical rating required for a +1% throughput gain (including TW effect on HS). So in next week's raids, I should get directly comparable numbers for both stats and can look for trends.

Edit (5/10):

I've been running with the addon working for about a week. I haven't posted my numbers from LFR and 5.0 raids, since they probably aren't of too much interest. Tonight we did the first two bosses of ToT (including several wipes - it was our group's first time in as a group).

Based on 120M heals, my throughput from Crit (13.4% Crit Chance unbuffed) was 17.8%. My throughput from Mastery (46% Mastery with Grace) was 9.2%. Based on this sample, the analysis done by the addon says that to gain 1% throughput, I would need +709 Crit Rating, or +997 Mastery Rating. Looking at the two boss kills only shows a similar trend. Mastery was a bit less bad on Jinrokh (but still behind Crit), but more bad on Horridon.

I am iLvl 501 and currently at the ~25% Haste soft-cap with buffs, so I don't have a lot of points in Crit Rating, and because I consistently see poor numbers for Mastery as opposed to Crit, regardless of the content, I have tried to dump as much Mastery as possible. To first order, having high or low Crit/Mastery should not affect the +1% throughput numbers, and indeed Mastery was also underperforming Crit when I was sitting close to 70% Mastery a week ago.

Standard caveats: these numbers are dependent on a lot of situational variables, but at least for me, there seems to be a clear trend disfavoring Mastery. In that regard, it has been a useful exercise.

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It's been a while, so I thought I'd give an update on the stat-tracking addon.

_Swift, the original author of the RestoShamanMastery addon contacted me, and we agreed to work together on an addon with expanded and hopefully improved functionality. Recently, we improved the tracking of target health, which should improve the estimation of stat effectiveness. The interface is admittedly minimalist, but I think the information it provides is quite interesting.

The new addon is available on Curse (in Alpha release, although I have been using it extensively without any issues):

Comments, bug reports, feature requests or technical matters should obviously be posted at Curse, but since this project was born here in the EJ Resto Shaman forum, I thought I should provide a link.

Edit: Due to my inexperience as a Curse author, the addon wasn't available through the Curse website, but only via the client. That has been fixed now.

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After a first heroic farm night with the current svn-version of the addon, the resurgence mana gain from crit seems to be around 115 mp5 per 600 crit rating (1% crit). I've seen it go up as high as 150 mp5 on council, though. The numbers are based on spell usage alone, so rng does not factor into it at all.

I'd imagine Chain Heal spam to have a positive effect on that number, as it can procc up to 4 times for ~3.5k mana each.

For reference: 600 Spirit should give around ~338 mp5 (+ 75ish extra you gain from mtt).

Disclaimer: these are preliminary numbers and I haven't fully cross-referenced them with WoL.

*edit2* After cross-referencing the council fight with WoL, it appears everything is in order. Although for some reason, WoL will pad the number of Riptide direct heals in the spell overview with a lot of crits, but when you click on Riptide, it actually shows the correct amount. Odd. It shows 85 hits in one pane and then the real 35 in another. Anyone know what's going on?

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In one of the countless Resto shaman threads on the official forums, a guy posted about his low-Spirit build, which games the LMG. He was 13/13H (25m, I believe) and was running with around 4700 Spirit.

The gimmick is to combine the LMG with Glyph of Totemic Recall. You drop Magma Totem during an LMG proc (thus, for free), and then recall it when the Lucidity buff is not up, to gain 21.1K mana.

Some napkin math on the viability of dropping 5K (a round number...) Spirit.

With MTT used on c/d, 5K Spirit = 5.89K effective Spirit for regeneration = 3324 mp5 = 39.9K mana/Minute

The LMG RPPM is 1.40, according to Dev post (quoted on WoWhead). With 33% raid-buff spell haste, that will be on average 1.86 procs/minute.

Each proc gains you 21.1K mana, if you do the Magma Totem thing, so that is theoretically 39.3K mana/Minute. Almost exactly break-even with 5K spirit.

To pull this off, you would have to use at least 1 GCD per proc; since Magma Totem lasts for 60 seconds, the recall could be piggy-backed on an HST recall that you would be doing anyway. Worst-case, it is 2 GCD/proc.

At 33% spell haste, 1 GCD*1.86 procs/minute = 1.86 GCD/minute = 1.86*1.5 s/1.33 = 2.1 seconds per minute, or about 3.5% of the available cast time. Worst case is twice that, or 7% of the available cast time.

The benefit would be reforging/regemming/regearing 5K Spirit into a through-put stat.

To get > 3.5% throughput from 5K rating points requires about 1425 Rating Points per % of throughput. According to the addon, both Critical Rating and Mastery easily do better than that. Haste likely does too, although the addon doesn't track that (yet). Worst case (2 GCD/proc), you would need then to perform about twice as well (~700 points/%), which is pretty close to the numbers I typically see on difficult fights. To the extent you could trade Spirit for Int, you would obviously do even better.

Supposing you could dump all 5K into Critical Rating, that would be +8.3% critical chance. which would result in something like a 30% increase in gains from Resurgence, giving you some margin of error on hitting every proc.

If you could dump all 5K into Haste, that would put you around 46% buffed Spell Haste (assuming you had 33% to start with). This would increase the proc rate of the LMG and any regen trinket (e.g. Horridon's).

Assuming you still *use* LMG procs at the breakeven rate above, the cast time lost would go down due to reduced GCD:

(1.86 proc/60 s)*(1 GCD/proc)*(1.5s/1.46/GCD) = 3.2% (best case) or 6.4% (worst case)

The regen from Horridon's trinket would increase by 1.46/1.33 = ~10%.

And of course you would get the normal benefits of increased Crit or Haste on all your other casts.

More realistically, you would probably have to divide the 5K between Haste and Crit, for some mixture of the two extreme cases (more Resurgence, more trinket procs, and some amount of higher throughput).

Conclusion: Based on napkin math, this seems viable if you can really train yourself to use most of the LMG procs, although I can't see the throughput gains topping much more than 5% (mainly due to the lost GCDs).

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There's also an opportunity cost to casting Magma Totem during the LMG effect. Unless you cast it at the end of the effect's duration and you couldnt possibly fit in another spell, foregoing an HS or HR cast to cast MT will not provide any actual mana gain.

Mod bump.