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[Prot] 5.0.4 - Somebody that I used to know

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Good points as usual. First off, SS. Am I crazy or is this ability borderline (or possibly not so borderline) OP when looking at how it scales with Vengeance? I'm a little disappointed at the lack of tank comparison theorycrafting going on as it makes me feel on shaky ground making statements like that which shouldn't be hard to verify one way or the other.

I can't recall if I mention it, but I actually came up with my weightings by plugging my own gear into your spreadsheet as a starting point, and then varied different stats by various amounts and noting how the stats impacted each other both in degree and magnitude. I do note that weightings can vary based on differing gear, direct people to the spreadsheet, encourage them to plug their own stats and see how they shake out but I probably don't make the point as firmly as I should have. I know that people have a strong tendency to ignore disclaimers, latch onto any numbers presented as universally applicable gospel and run with it. Which is bad. On the other hand, I feel like I'm letting people down if I don't at least give them some idea of how things look, even if there's a risk of misinterpretation of the results.

Regarding a Control strategy, I totally agree that you wouldn't be following that for the damage reduction, but I did feel it was important that people had at least a ballpark idea of how much damage reduction you're giving up by following that strategy. The difference between it and Avoidance (on average) is actually quite significant. Doesn't mean Control isn't generally better, but as with everything, there's a price to be paid for not missing those CS's.

I take issue with your comment about missing a HoPo generator being critical, though. Certainly, it *could* be critical (as with the Impale example I gave) but for progression content, I argue that you frequently don't know in advance when those critical moments are doing to be (Slashlove and Celyndrashad and an interesting debate on this in the WoW tanking forum).

You know when the better telegraphed spikes will come (Impales, Morchok stomps, etc) with a decent amount of accuracy. While its possible to mis-time things, once you have a basic knowledge of the fight, accumulating sufficient HoPo to prepare for these situations isn't very challenging even for someone with minimal Hit or Expertise. For the spikes that aren't telegraphed as well (or are caused by non-damage mechanics, such as mechanics that cc healers or force them to move), Control can help by ensuring your next generator hits, giving you the HoPo for a ShoR to follow-up the WoG.

However, you can get most of the way there by simply making of habit of building up to 5 HoPo before ShoRing. If you're at 5 HoPo, 7 times out of 9 the Avoidance strategy will give you the same result as Control. Additionally, IMO, being able to fire off two finishers quickly is small potatoes compared with getting lucky and having the crisis occur during ShoR uptime. Because the damage is already done. Obviously, big mitigation is a lot less useful when you're already low on health from an EH-boosting standpoint. Using two finishers is great for bailing you out, but its better to avoid the situation in the first place.

I believe that maintaining the highest possible ShoR up-time is the best way of doing that. I suspect that anything which increases your ShoR uptime is going to be extremely valuable for survivability. However, my last couple paragraphs are shot through with "I think" and "I suspect" because while I can math out averages and guess at distributional effects, I'm very curious what your Monte Carlo work says because I hope it'll flesh out the results (especially the variability in damage intake) in illuminating fashion. I think I know how things will turn out, but I recognize its possible that I'm wrong and will have to change my tune in short order.

Edit - I've very curious to hear if you're planning on pushing for hard capping EXP or not. From a theoretical standpoint, maximizing HoPo generation and being able to perfectly deliver a critical HoPo requires going all the way to hard cap. On the other hand, broadly speaking, your results variability will certainly drop the higher you get and I'm curious to see if there's a point at which your variability is low enough that its simply not worth getting all the way there. I wonder if there's a sweet spot at like 12% Exp where you get 97% of the benefit with only 80% of the itemization cost and it turns out to be worth stopping there.

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I wouldn't worry about giving people exact numbers because they wouldn't be accurate anyway. The setup you currently have going over things like Hit>Haste>Mastery>Expertise should be fine as well as pointing them to the spreadsheet and saying "The values you get are for your unique setup and might not be anything like someone else's setup. That's just how the game works."

You could also emphasize the fact that there are no universal stat weights with big bold red letters so that a person would almost have to be blind to miss it. That or a troll decides to go "lolwut? me no get it, need numbers!" and then get a well-earned infraction.

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A little late to the party, but here's a non-Prot perspective on a few things (I've played a healer a lot of my time in WoW, and listened to them closely the remainder).

SS is powerful compared to the other abilities due to it being passive, not despite it. Think about it this way - yes, SH or EF may arguably be better for total healing/absorbtion/whatever. However, realize that by the time you cast WoG/EF/FoL on yourself, your healers have already picked their next spell and begun casting. If you spiked low enough that WoG/EF/FoL is truly useful, your healer probably has already started their fast-manahog spell. By the time they may realize you don't need it, too late, mana is gone. No one wants to hear "Oh, I didn't heal you because I thought you were going to self-heal" after a wipe, so the healer feels they must heal. Thus your self-heals are either overheal or causing your healers to overheal/over-manaspend. SS being passive helps reduce the spikes that cause a healer to panic, and doesn't make the healer second guess when they do swap to a fast heal.

Similar with tanking cooldowns. If you use a 40% damage reducer at 100% health, you're less likely to spike low and cause healer worry. Healers can potentially regen, use a slow heal, or perform some other action knowing you can survive the very next attack. If you wait to low health to use the damage reducer and it keeps you alive, your healers are still panicking and working to get you healthy enough to survive the next blow ASAP.

The total effectiveness of a damage reducer remains the same whether used at 100% or 10% (as long as you survive), but using it at the high end of the spectrum is a quality of life improvement for your healers. Also you don't have to worry about waiting a hair too long and popping the CD at X% and dying by overkill of 10 damage. As long as it's not wasted (popped during period where incoming damage is very low, or used during normal phase when a known damage spike phase is upcoming),

If any spec can understand that 'it's not always about what's best for me, but what's best for the raid', it would be the tanking specs. After all, you dedicate your lives to not topping either the DPS or the Healing meter.

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Decided that I wasn't nearly clear enough that the stat weights were based on my own gear and that people should really work out their own. Plus, I couldn't get a combo of readability and usefulness on stat weights that I was happy with. So instead, I took out the section and I'm putting it here in this post. If someone really wants to see some sample stat weights, they're quite findable without causing issues in the OP.

==The cost of control and Stat weights==

Lets give some perspective on what's at stake in deciding between Avoidance and Mitigation stats. Sure, giving up Parry for Hit will give you more damage smoothing, but how much extra damage will you take? In a nutshell, every 100 itemization points you put into Hit, Haste or Expertise instead of Strength will cost you about 0.4% damage taken. Hit is a little better, while Haste and Expertise are a little worse.

Reaching 7.5% Hit and Exp will take about 1525 points. If you were able to take all those points and put them into STR, you'd take a little more than 6% less damage on average.

Damage Reduction Stat Weights

1.00 STR

0.88 Parry

0.88 Dodge

0.75 Mastery

0.47 Hit

0.36 Haste

0.30 Expertise

Roughly speaking, each 0.7 of weighting is worth 0.5% damage per 100 itemization points. Also remember that stat weights will varying based on specific gearing and these are averages. Theck has kindly created a spreadsheet for you to calculate your own and its accessible here

Edit - Also, going to start redoing this thread for MoP launch. Will be heavily based on this thread, but edited to be 100% focused on level 90 play, and will be its own new thread. Hoping to have it up middle of next week.

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I've been trying to test out the SS absorb and it seems weirldy tuned (if I can trust the values from SPELL_AURA_APPLIED and SPELL_AURA_REFRESH):

At 8363 AP absorb amount is 4922

At 4061 AP absorb amount is 1472

Assuming base + percentAP works out to 30 + 0.585*AP.

I also did some testing to see when the absorb used the vengeance value - it appears only to use it on a manual reapplication rather than a refresh. (i.e. when you recast the spell manually)

(Edit: for clarity - the SS 6 second shield size is calculated on SS manual cast - automatic refresh uses the original value and ignores current AP)

This seems to greatly encourage using a vengeance tracker and reapplying on either of two conditions for some quite considerable changes in absorption:

* always reapply when current vengeance AP > when cast (use some threshold to decide)

* when vengeance is about to drop

Given how easily vengeance can spike from burst this seems a very easy way to game SS usage.

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DP: 40% 51%

HA: 39% 49%

SW: 35% 44%

Do the ShoR uptime calculations take into account the fact that the buff doesn't overwrite itself - instead, it adds 3 seconds to the current duration? I've done some quick math and it seems HA is undervalued in the small uptime table.

If 41% is the untalented uptime with 100% hit/exp, simulating HA as 100% uptime for 21 seconds every 120 seconds (since it would last 3 seconds beyond the 18 second duration) yields 51% average uptime. Which is pretty close to the 49% in the table.

If, on the other hand, we use 4.4 CS, 3.3 J and 0.88 AS(GC) during HA (calculated as 18/4.5, 18/6, and 18/4.5*0.2, plus 10% haste raid buff), we get a total of 8.58 casts of ShoR in an average HA, resulting in 25.74 seconds uptime. This crude math yields a 55% average uptime.

Or am I totally off and this has already been accounted for? Skimming all 4 pages, I didn't find any mention of that.

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I did indeed assume the +3 seconds rather than overwriting. I don't have my spreadsheet here, but I believe I worked out that you'd be able to average... hmm, either 5.5 or 6, I forget which, ShoRs per 18 seconds of HA and went with that.

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If, on the other hand, we use 4.4 CS, 3.3 J and 0.88 AS(GC) during HA (calculated as 18/4.5, 18/6, and 18/4.5*0.2, plus 10% haste raid buff), we get a total of 8.58 casts of ShoR in an average HA, resulting in 25.74 seconds uptime. This crude math yields a 55% average uptime..

Note that you don't actually get 18/6 Judgments. In a CS>J rotation, Judgment's effective cooldown is 6.75 seconds.

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Still haven't gotten to check what I did in Excel, but I'm at least sitting now. With perfect play, over the course of the 12 GCDs of HA, with a little luck, you should be able to fit in something like: CS - J - AS - CS - Cons - J - CS - HW - AS (GC proc) - CS - J - Cons.

Assuming you're ShoRing instantly, you'd be able to fit in 8 ShoRs. Between having sub-perfect reflexes, potentially not getting a GC proc, and possibly not having your rotation lined up ahead of time, you could reasonably get as few as 6 ShoRs during that time. On the other hand, with perfect luck, you could get as many as 10.

If you're hit/exp capped, you should be getting about 41% uptime during that period anyway. So, if you're getting off 7 ShoRs, that's 21 seconds of uptime, during which you'd have expected to have perhaps 8.6 seconds of uptime time already, for a gain of 12.4 seconds, just over 10%.

I think I know what I did. I set the HA period to 12 GCDs and didn't account for HA procs affecting uptime out of that window. I'll fiddle with it a bit when I get home, but I suspect 51% is more accurate (I'd be willing to assume you can get 7 ShoRs off consistently during an HA, but 8 seems slightly optimistic). In fact, thinking back on it, I believe I originally had DP and HA tied at 51%, but during an edit I bumped HA down to 49% for reasons I'll have to look up.

Edit - Finally got to check, and the bounding was indeed the issue. Not sure where I got 5.5-6 in the earlier post (going off-the-cuff usually ends badly), I actually used 7.5 which would actually put HA uptime at 52%, above DP.

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