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OK, so I'm gonna say something that I know is gonna be unpopular, but I've tested it and I think there might be something to it. So I'm just throwing this out there.
I think on a single target CL has only an 11% chance to proc overload. And I think that that fact makes it better to cast LB instead of CL.
Heres why I think that.
I did a simple test twice, casting 100 chain lightnings, and counting the procs, the first instance out of 100 I got 9 overloads, the second I got 13.
I did the same with regular Lightning bolts, and got 32 overloads, and then 34.
What I think the game is doing, is assuming that your chain lightning is going to hit 3 targets, so its dividing the 33% proc chance between the potential 3 targets. I think you guys might find the same thing if you tried to test it yourself. Please let me know what you discover, I think the proc rate is a SIGNIFICANT bit lower on CL than LB.
I ran the test, and did not get the same results as you, although I didn't get 33%, I surely didn't get 11%.
My results were:
LB - 3 instances of 100 casts - Procs: 31, 36, 35
CL - 3 instances of 100 casts - Procs: 21, 28, 26
So either my RNG was really good, your RNG is really bad, or there is a legit bug. Either way I think more data needs to be gathered before we report it as a bug.
One thing you might want to try britishgrl, is glyph for chain lightning (increasing to 4 targets) and see if your proc rate drops to 7-8ish.