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Cataclysm Bear Theorycraft


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#1 Carebare

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Posted 20 September 2010 - 10:43 AM

This thread is for one specific purpose. Please read the lead post in its entirety to avoid infractions. If you are looking for a less mathy general discussion of Feral Cataclysm stuff, you will find it here.

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#2 Gurrshael

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Posted 21 September 2010 - 12:31 AM

All these numbers are for 85 level tauren druid without talents as they show on character sheet.

Base stats:
[table]Race|Str|Agi|Stam|Int|Spr|Health|Mana
Tauren|101|85|107|152|175|42399|20635
[/table]

Crit Chance: 7.74% (corresponds to your base crit chance + agi / 324.85)
Mastery: 8 (non-functional without specialization)
Hit Chance: 0%
Miss table:
[table]lvl|miss
85|5
86|5.5
87|6
88|8
[/table]

Armor: 0
Dodge: 5.3%

Dodge ratio:
85 agi ... 5.30%
2187 agi ... 13.55%.

Seems like it follows this formula:
Dodge = 5 + (agi -10) * 254.787878

#3 Starfox

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 02:35 AM

All these numbers are for 85 level tauren druid without talents as they show on character sheet.

Base stats:
[table]Race|Str|Agi|Stam|Int|Spr|Health|Mana
Tauren|101|85|107|152|175|42399|20635
[/table]

Crit Chance: 7.74% (corresponds to your base crit chance + agi / 324.85)

No clue where you got your basestats from, but my lvl 85 tauren druid does not have only 107 stamina w/o items/spec
Here are the values, also did racechange to troll to got those base values
[table]Race|Str|Agi|Stam|Int|Spr|Health|Mana
Tauren|101|85|227|152|175|42399|20635
Troll|97|91|226|152|174|41613|20635
[/table]
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#4 Gurrshael

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 06:45 AM

No clue where you got your basestats from, but my lvl 85 tauren druid does not have only 107 stamina w/o items/spec
Here are the values, also did racechange to troll to got those base values
[table]Race|Str|Agi|Stam|Int|Spr|Health|Mana
Tauren|101|85|227|152|175|42399|20635
Troll|97|91|226|152|174|41613|20635
[/table]


That's really strange. I rechecked the numbers and they are correct for my character. You can see for yourself:

Posted ImagePosted Image

When compared to the base stamina of other races, yours is more than two times greater. Did you copy your own character or was it a premade?

#5 Astrylian

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 08:38 AM

Indeed, Gurrshael's numbers seem to match in-game. Starfox, really curious to see how you're seeing 227/226sta for the horde druids. It doesn't seem to be a case of transferring over, as my main is transferred over and then leveled to 85, and I also have an 85 premade, and their naked untalented stats match. I've updated the table in the OP with the new data (I got a Worgen Druid premade, but it crashes on login every time, so still looking for 85 druid worgen base stats). Note that the health/mana in that table is *without* health/mana from sta/int.

EDIT: One point of analysis about the base stats: After removing the health/mana from sta/int, you can see that Tauren have 5% more base health, as expected, from their racial. But Night Elves also have 15% more base mana, which is unexpected as far as I know.

EDIT 2: Got a Worgen working. Confirmed normal base HP/MP for Worgen, still 39533HP/18635MP. Also found a mistake in my base stats for NE, fixed that. NEs have the same base mana has everyone else.
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#6 Starfox

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Posted 22 September 2010 - 12:43 PM

That's really strange. I rechecked the numbers and they are correct for my character. You can see for yourself:

Posted ImagePosted Image

When compared to the base stamina of other races, yours is more than two times greater. Did you copy your own character or was it a premade?

Argh, mining char and toughness is +120 sta, sorry >:<
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#7 Sadirin

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Posted 23 September 2010 - 03:45 AM

Faerie Fire
Damage: 1+AP*0.15
Threat: Bear*(Dmg+774)
(Unable to test 1v3 stacks due to Feral Aggression not working)


It finally works and I did a very small test run.

2/2 Feral Agression (3 stacks of FFF applied with one cast of FFF) + Omen + Recount
6445 ap
Hit: 968 Damage => 3800 Threat
Crit: 1648 => 5200 threat

As it seems Feral Aggression only applies 1 stack of threat and 3 stacks of the armor reduction with each application of FFF

Right now:
Fury Swipes: yellow damage, no rage generated
Fury Swipe Crits: yellow damage, no rage from Primal Fury (submitted as a bug)

#8 Satrion

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Posted 27 September 2010 - 05:32 AM

In the latest Build (13066) the bear threat multiplier was changed to 2.00 instead of 2.0735. Also the extra threat on FF is still being affected by the number of points in Feral Aggression. With 0 points it is 774, with 1 point it is 822, and with 2 points it is 870. The number of stacks has no affect on the threat. Another interesting change is that the initial damage on Lacerate is now modified by mangle. Since this is a totally undocumented change (as far as I know) it might be a bug.

#9 tangedyn

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Posted 29 September 2010 - 06:54 AM

I've started work on a simulator, and the information here is useful. Hope to be able to share something soon, but at the moment I need a model for incoming rage... does anyone have information on how incoming rage is calculated yet? Unfortunately I don't have a beta account :(

#10 Satrion

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Posted 29 September 2010 - 08:45 AM

I've started work on a simulator, and the information here is useful. Hope to be able to share something soon, but at the moment I need a model for incoming rage... does anyone have information on how incoming rage is calculated yet? Unfortunately I don't have a beta account :(


Well I have good news and bad news. The good news is that rage from white swings is like clockwork. The bad news is rage gained from incoming damage seems to be pretty complicated and unpredictable.

All white hits and glances (regardless of how much they hit for) give 16 rage. A crit gives 21 rage (16 from the hit plus 5 extra for the crit). Misses give 0 rage. On the target dummy, a Parry also gave 16 rage. I didn't have a chance to test that one on a real mob, so don't write that in stone. GC has said before that target dummies sometimes have strange mechanics that you can't find anywhere else.

For incoming damage, rage generation does seem to scale somewhat with how hard it hits, but it seems to still be a bit random. Any damage taken less than about 2k will give 1 rage. That means each dot tick, each spell, each melee hit gives one rage if it is less than 2k damage or so. Once it gets higher than that, sometimes it's 2, sometimes it's 1. Over about 5k I was getting 2 rage very consistently and got 3 rage once, so it seems like it continues to scale as the hits get bigger. I was doing this without a healer, so I didn't go after mobs that hit any harder than that.

Dodges and misses are also a bit strange. At very low damage, misses usually give 0 rage, but once in a while they give 1 and dodges always give 3 (with natural reaction talented). At around the 2k mark, misses give either 1 or 0 rage at about a 50:50 ratio. Higher than that misses usually give 1 and dodges usually give 4. I also got 5 rage a couple times from a dodge. It almost seems like it takes what it would have given you if you had been hit and subtracts 1 for a miss, and a dodge gives you the same as a miss+3. That is very much a guess on my part and it will take a lot more testing to nail it down for sure.

That's all I can tell you for now. I'll try to do more testing on incoming damage and outgoing Parries when I get time and maybe when I can bribe a healer to come help me out.

#11 tangedyn

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Posted 29 September 2010 - 09:58 AM

Thanks, I have enough to go on for now.. at least for the second tank on LDW!

P.S. Yellow hits = 0 rage, crits = 5 rage, is that correct?

#12 kalbear

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Posted 29 September 2010 - 03:20 PM

My understanding of incoming rage was that it scales with the amount of damage that you can take; in other words, if you have 100k health and take 2k damage, that's probably on the threshold of 0/1 rage. You'll need to take something on the order of 10k/20k to get a clearer idea. The formula is likely linear with the linear factor being C * inc damage/stam, where C is some small value. Given 2k hits giving 1 rage, 5k hits giving 2/3, and assuming 100k health, C should be:

5k/100k * C = 2.5
C = 1/20 / 2.5 or 50

So 50 * inc hit/stamina is likely close.

#13 Satrion

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Posted 29 September 2010 - 05:46 PM

I agree that stam (or at least level) must factor in. I forgot to mention that all the testing I did was with a level 85 premade with about 100k health.

There is definitely some kind of random element to it though. I would sometimes get 1 rage from a ~3k hit and then get 2 rage from a ~2.2k hit. My best guess right now from the limited testing I did is that it works similarly to how resistance does now. Getting hit harder increases your chances for more rage per hit and it probably has thresh holds where you are guaranteed at least X and no more than Y.

So still to do:

1) Test for when a mob dodges or parries a bear
2) See if rage from incoming damage scales from the percentage of max health or from absolute damage
3) Figure out the random element from incoming damage, misses, and dodges
4) Try to find accurate cut off points for more rage (if they exist)

#14 tangedyn

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Posted 30 September 2010 - 10:19 AM

Hi, I have created a preliminary spreadsheet to calculate damage, threat and TPR. Stats are based on the pre-made character. Vengeance isn't factored in but all the relevant talents and glyphs are.

https://spreadsheets...pRc3V5ekE&hl=en

Let me know if you spot any silly mistakes in there, I'm starting work on the Simulator based on the formulas here.

#15 tangedyn

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Posted 30 September 2010 - 02:42 PM

Hi, anyone in beta able to do a quick test for me?
If I lacerate twice in a row, do I get 5x 2stack ticks, or 1x 1stack tick + 5x 2stack ticks?

Thanks

#16 Hoofhearted

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Posted 30 September 2010 - 03:39 PM

You get 6x 2stack ticks with 0 haste rating.

#17 tangedyn

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Posted 30 September 2010 - 04:24 PM

Wow thanks, that's pretty awesome. I've added some preliminary modeling of some strats on the spreadsheet.
The 14/14 rotation attempts to keep Pulverize up 100% by casting it every 14s:
00.0 Pulverize
01.5 Lacerate
03.0 Lacerate
04.5 (2 stack tick) Lacerate
07.5 (3 stack tick)
10.5 (3 stack tick)
13.5 (3 stack tick)
14.0 (Pulverize fades) *repeat*

The 14/17 rotation allows lacerate to tick once more at 16.5s before pulverizing, so pulverize drops off for 3 seconds.
16.5 (3 stack tick)
17.0 *repeat*

As can be seen from the spreadsheet, even with all our rage self generated and no incoming rage from damage, we are able to keep the 14/14 rotation up full time, spending ~55 rage to keep the rotation up every 14 seconds and generating ~104 rage in the process. Optimally we will spend all the excess rage on Mangle which is our highest TPR skill, and my spreadsheet tries to model that and that's where the theorycraft breaks down, because we get enough rage to spend more mangles than we have mangle CDs for, and the difficulty of weaving mangles amongst all the other GCD skills. The start of the rotation eats up 3 GCDs, and we can delay the 3rd Lacerate to 6.0s and fit a mangle into 4.5s... and then we run into the problem of the Berserk talent refreshing Mangle, so it looks like further theorycrafting will have to go through a Simulator.

It does look like we will not exactly be starving for rage and it looks like we will have enough rage to do something every GCD. If mangle is on CD we will probably cast Thrash, and if Thrash is already up we will Swipe. And then there's this piece of crap called Maul. I think we will be pretty busy mashing buttons in Cata, and it'll get even worse when we get more crit and haste...

#18 Numeno

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Posted 30 September 2010 - 11:42 PM

For incoming damage, rage generation does seem to scale somewhat with how hard it hits, but it seems to still be a bit random. Any damage taken less than about 2k will give 1 rage. That means each dot tick, each spell, each melee hit gives one rage if it is less than 2k damage or so. Once it gets higher than that, sometimes it's 2, sometimes it's 1. Over about 5k I was getting 2 rage very consistently and got 3 rage once, so it seems like it continues to scale as the hits get bigger. I was doing this without a healer, so I didn't go after mobs that hit any harder than that.



At first glance this looked to me like you were getting fractions of rage and SCT was just telling you the integer difference. 39.8 rage says 39 rage in the UI. You get hit and gain 1.3 rage for example. This puts you at 41.1. Which the UI would tell you just gained 2 rage.

Was it a consistent switch between 1 and 2 or where there long streaks of each?

#19 Satrion

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Posted 05 October 2010 - 10:27 PM

I've done a ton of testing and here is what I have found for rage generated from taking damage.

First of all, the equation for calculating rage gain is different for regular melee attacks and special attacks. It is also different for magic damage. The testing I did so far is only for regular melee because 1) it was the easiest to test and 2) it is the most common thing bears get hit by.

Here is the formula for when the rage gain is 2 or more:

R = UD*a/H where R = Rage, UD = Unmitigated Damage taken, a = constant, and H = Maximum Health.

a = 18.92. You can calculate your unmitigated damage taken from the actual damage you take if you know all the mitigating factors. It would look like Damage/((1-M1)*(1-M2)...) where Mn = Mitigating factors like armor, Damage Reduction CDs, and Natural Reaction.

Rage gain is calculated and stored to some decimal place, but it is only displayed in whole numbers and any decimal is truncated, not rounded. That means that if you have 2.95 rage, the UI will say you have 2 rage. However, the decimal is kept so that if the next hit gives you 1.3 rage, the UI will say you have 4 rage.

I said the previous equation was for >2 rage gained because less than that it uses a different one. No matter how weak the hit, you can never get less than 1 rage. My best guess for rage gain <2 is

R = 1 + (UD*b)/H where b is a different constant from a. My best guess for b is 9.77, but I would have to do a lot more testing before I would be at all confident with that. For now at least it should be fairly close.

When a mob misses, it internally still rolls for how much damage it would have done if it hit you and gives you that amount of rage. What this means is that increasing your chance to be missed has no affect on your rage gained. Dodges are handled the same as a miss, except you get an extra 3 rage if you have Natural Reaction. What this means is that increasing your dodge chance actually increases your rage gained. It is a fairly small increase compared to the rage gained from your own white swings and even from the rage gained from getting hit by a raid boss, but it still not negligible. The only things that really affect rage gain are how hard the mob hits and how much total health you have.

I still need to test a lot of other stuff. During my testing I ran into a couple mobs who did special attacks like heroic strike and backstab and they were giving less rage than the equation for melee damage would predict. I also need to figure out the equation for spell damage. It took a lot less spell damage to get the same rage gained. I assume that is because spell damage isn't mitigated by armor. I also still need to figure out what Savage defense does to rage gain.

I noticed several posts in this thread got deleted. If this is too far off topic let me know and I can start a new thread I guess. I just figured this was still part of Bear Theorycrafting so it would make sense to put it here.

Edit: Changed "a" to correct for a term I forgot to factor in initially.

#20 kalbear

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Posted 05 October 2010 - 10:54 PM

Were you factoring in the innate damage reduction that bears have as ferals? That might correct some of the issues with spell damage and specials.

From my testing savage defense (and all absorb mechanics) act as if it wasn't there for the purposes of rage gain; this has been true for a while now.




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