Reviewing:

100 coins -> 1 pack

$1.50 to $1.30 -> 1 pack (price depending on bulk)

1 daily quest = 40 coins

1 game win = 1 coin

150 coins -> 1 arena

$2 -> 1 arena

1 arena -> 1 pack + coins and dust (seemingly averaging to around 50, but we don't have to get into the details of arena yet).

Disenchant values (golden):

common: 5 (50)

rare: 20 (100)

epic: 100 (400)

legendary: 400 (1600)

craft values (golden):

common: 40 (400)

rare: 100 (800)

epic: 400 (1600)

legendary: 1600 (3200)

Checking the card list (wowhead DB with "collectible" and "expert" filters set: Hearthstone Cards - World of Warcraft

We have something like:

94 common

81 rare

37 epic

33 legendary

A full playset (2 of each card (1 for legendaries)) would take:

**106,120**dust (non-Golden)

428,800 dust (Golden)

The big question, as I said, is: what do you get in a pack on average. A quick glace at this thread:

Expert Pack Opening Rates and Arena Rates - Forums - Hearthstone

And for now I'll go with a quick ballpark of 1% legendary, 5% epic, 21% rare, 73% common, with 2.5% of all cards (uniformly distributed) being Golden. Refining this at some point will definitely be helpful. But for now, multiplying it all out would give each pack an average disenchant value of

**93.8 Dust**.

So if you disenchanted every card in a pack, you'd take something like 1131 packs to finish a non-foil set. This number is somewhat meaningless since most of the cards you'd open for a long time (especially non-common cards) will be cards you don't have 2 of yet, so the value of opening them is much better than their disenchant value. But it gives some perspective, as a number that we know is somewhat beyond what the real number might be.

To pull a number out of my hat, maybe it's an overestimate by a factor of around 2 (for example, imagine opening 500 packs and getting 25 legendaries--you'll have over half of your needed 33 covered before even having to craft anything). I'm going to think about a better way to do the computation for real, but a basic simulation might be easy for someone to set up. It's a bit hard to deal with the changing probability of getting duplicates as you've opened more and more packs. Maybe I'll do a simple version later that only considers legendaries and post that at least.

If you want all foils, things look much worse, for two reasons:

1) The commons are now expensive. The craft cost of the whole set has gone up by a factor of 4 or so.

2) The rate at what you open cards you need has slowed by a factor something like 40. Unlike the non-foil example, the approximation where you assume you have to craft everything from dust is not too far off the mark.

And crafting everything from dust is looking to take something on the order of 4570 packs.

Sticking just for a moment with that first-order guess of 800 packs, that would be $650 invested into the game (bearing in mind that you can earn off 52 cents for every daily quest you do). This is, interestingly, about the same order of magnitude as the cost of a full playset of any one Magic set.

Anyway, I'm not going to keep going until I back up and fill in more real math estimates, but I wanted to get this started so others can look into it and help start working it all out.