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Resistance Mechanics in WotLK


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#21 kalbear

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Posted 04 February 2009 - 09:38 PM

Yeah, the problem there is that Sarth's breath is on a slow, random timer as well. In a 15 minute fight you're going to get around 60 data points from the breath, give or take a few. That means to get anything statistically meaningful you're going to be doing it for a good 8-10 hours, and 20 hours would be much better.

I think it would be better to find something like BWL and test it there. Heck, there's no reason that it can't be done on Sapphiron with Frost resist either, and you'd get much faster results.

#22 Shamgarr

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 06:25 AM

I'm going to take logs of a 10-man Sapphiron this week, where everyone just has GotW, as a start. I'm not sure what a good program is to parse all that text into taken/resisted amounts, might have to do something cumbersome with Excel if I can't find anything else. As far as I can tell WWS is still trying to convert the damage into the old 25/50/75 resist system.

For looking at higher resists, I typically tank KT in polar set anyways so will get a bit of data there. One thing I have no clue about is the phenomenon of "misses", and how that is or isn't affected by resist. I've seen a handful of full misses of Sarth's breath and KT's frostbolt, and I have no idea how that fits into the partial resist math worked out so far.

#23 Tunch

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 03:56 PM

NPC spell misses against you are just like player misses against NPCS. They are not at all affected by resist values, and only affected by a pre-set hit rate. Level 80 NPCs are going to miss you roughly 4% of the time just like you would them, and a boss level NPC will probably miss you 1-2% of the time.

#24 LucidityAxel

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Posted 05 February 2009 - 04:21 PM

Any boss-level "??" mob counts as player level + 3, so you should be able to go to any of the older raid bosses that do elemental damage and get some useful test data.

For instance, I think pretty much everything Baron Geddon does is fire damage (not sure about his melee), so he could make for a decent test subject. If memory serves, his Living Bomb ability is the only thing that's not resistable.

#25 Rasmfrackn

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Posted 06 February 2009 - 08:10 PM

NPC spell misses against you are just like player misses against NPCS. They are not at all affected by resist values, and only affected by a pre-set hit rate. Level 80 NPCs are going to miss you roughly 4% of the time just like you would them, and a boss level NPC will probably miss you 1-2% of the time.


Yeah, I saw roughly the same miss rate vs. searing pain with 0 FR or 400+ FR.

As far as I can tell WWS is still trying to convert the damage into the old 25/50/75 resist system.


How do you mean? Filtering down the combat log shows the entries as they were, and the resist numbers in the drill-downs are overall %s..

#26 Shamgarr

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Posted 07 February 2009 - 02:45 AM

Well if Sapphiron's aura is a constant amount, all I need is a big pile of combat log entries of the resisted amount, as this will not be modified by any of the various damage reduction effects or absorbs people have. Divide by the appropriate amount for normal/heroic and there's the partial resist %.

The main issue is that the data really has to be completely uncorrupted to be meaningful - so no Frost Resist totems or auras at all, because there's always a chance someone was out of range, and I would need to be able to discard anyone like mages that might have put on mage armor, or a tank in polar gear. Everyone in the sample needs to have the same resistance (meaning probably just GOTW).

If anyone else has a combat log, or can get one, that meets these criteria, I'd love to work with it. Hoping to get one this weekend, but might not, and either way the more data, the better.

Based on my own most recent experience tanking Sartharion with 417 Fire Resist, I'm really starting to doubt the assumptions made so far about the level difference. I would strongly advise taking all the boss numbers up right now with a grain of salt until more data can be gathered. The level 80 numbers are solid (but not terribly useful except perhaps to PvPers), but the assumptions about 83 seem to not be matching some anecdotal experiences. My guess right now is that either the factor goes up higher than 415, bosses have a certain amount of spell penetration, or the formula is actually a simplification of a more general formula that incorporates both target level and caster level.

#27 Shamgarr

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Posted 09 February 2009 - 05:31 PM

Sapphiron Test

Got my first Sapphiron log (10-man), with some interesting results. Made sure everyone had just GotW, and weeded out pets. This left 1424 data points, not huge, but pretty significant and a higher sample than the individual cases that provided the level 80 data.

At 75 Resistance:

Partial Resist: Probability

0%: 0.1699
10%: 0.4305
20%: 0.3272
30%: 0.07233

Average Resist: 0.1302

First off, the individual percentages still agree very well with the triangular distribution about the mean. Thus the formula for the probability of each partial resist seems to hold (0.5 - 2.5*|x-AR|).

The "predicted" mean, which was already under some doubt, is

Resistance/(Resistance + 5*Level) = 75/(75+415) = 0.1531

For this sample size, this is well outside 99% confidence limits for the mean, so I'm pretty confident that there's something else going on.

Possibility 1:

The factor of 5*level holds, but the boss has some amount of spell penetration, reducing the player's effective amount of resist. If this were the case, the amount of effective resistance that fits the data is 62. Perhaps more appealing, if the constant is held at 400 instead of raised to 415, the effective resistance is 60. This would mean the boss had 15 spell penetration, 5 per level.

As tidy as this sounds, however, it does not agree with the observations of 30% partial resists at resistance values of 415 or higher, some of which will be mentioned below.

Possibility 2:

The constant is not simply 5*level, but takes some other value for bosses. If zero spell penetration is assumed, the value that fits the data is 501. A more rounded value of 500 yields a predicted mean of 0.1304, well within confidence bounds.

It is worth noting that increasing the constant from 400 to 500 is equivalent to multiplying it by 1.25. The same result is achieved by instead dividing the resistance by 1.25. Thus mathematically these two effects would be indistinguishable. Dividing 75 resist by 1.25 yields 60 resist, explaining the agreement with such an assumption above. Raising the effective constant, rather than reducing player resistance by a fixed percentage, seems a bit more intuitive.

Kel'Thuzad Test

For this I had 430 Frost Resist (with GotW), while everyone else had 75. The sample size is of course much smaller and harder to draw any precise conclusions from, but what is perhaps most important is the presence of 30% partial resists.

430 Resistance - 42 samples

30%: 0.095
40%: 0.40
50%: 0.31
60%: 0.19

Average Resist: 0.46

Predicted Resist from 430/(430+500): 0.462

There were also 10 hits that did 0 damage, and were classified as "Resist" (not Missed). I'm not sure what these mean, but it may have something to do with a binary check on the spell due to the snare component. It seems entirely independent of the partial resist check, and made up about 19% of the casts (again, with a very large confidence interval due to the small sample size). It's interesting that if this is the case, the chance for a spell to do zero damage is much higher simply due to it having a debuff accompanied with it - there were not separate checks for the damage or debuff, as these "Resists" did not simply deal damage but fail to apply the snare.

As seen from the data, while the sample size is extremely small, the average resist still agrees very well with the constant of 500. A constant of 415 is not possible, because 30% resists should be eliminated. This is true even if the boss had 15 spell penetration and the constant was 400, which would bring my resistance down to 415. As mentioned above, the amount of "penetration" which would make this data match with a constant of 400, is to divide the player resistance by 1.25 instead (bringing it down to 344), which is simply equivalent to raising the constant to 500.

The 75 resist data agreed reasonably well with the Sapphiron data, but with only 123 sample points doesn't really provide any additional information. Of frostbolts casts on people with 75 resistance, about 8% were fully resisted.

Conclusions

I need more data, preferably at a different resistance, to feel completely confident in this presumption, but right now, a constant of 500 for bosses looks quite likely. 415, or 5*Level, can pretty much thrown out at this point, so I'll update the first post. There still remain other, slightly more complicated possibilities which might produce the same results at a single resistance, such as combinations of a different constant, a smaller amount of penetration, or some more complex formula with caster and target level as variables, but at present there isn't any data prompting such characterizations.

I'll log our 25-man Sapphiron kill on Tuesday, and will probably wear my polar set and have a couple pallies put up frost resistance. I'll need to manually sift through the log and disregard any data from someone that gained or lost frost resistance aura during the fight, but this should yield a decent amount of data at 130 and 485 frost resist.

#28 kalbear

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Posted 09 February 2009 - 06:01 PM

If the 500 coefficient is correct, we should require 334 resistance (not 277) to get to the 30% always resisted barrier, which is where a druid can deal with Sarth's breaths with only their own cooldowns/pots to mitigate it.

#29 Silverwind

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Posted 09 February 2009 - 11:20 PM

Looks like the 75% cap on partial resists is gone too since WotLK. I've seen tons of 80% an 90% partial resists on the obviously bugged Twilight Shift you get hit by while inside the portals at sarth. (WWS Log)

#30 Shamgarr

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Posted 10 February 2009 - 12:08 AM

Looks like the 75% cap on partial resists is gone too since WotLK. I've seen tons of 80% an 90% partial resists on the obviously bugged Twilight Shift you get hit by while inside the portals at sarth. (WWS Log)


Now that's just plain weird... wonder what's going on there.

Thanks btw to Melthu for a nice chunk of Sapphiron data at 362 resist. I should reiterate that the formula and the 500 constant are still just educated guesses right now - really being sure of any of this is just going to take a lot more data.

I'd be happy to look through logs of anyone that can give *definite* resist amounts for even just a few of the players in a parse. Since I've got a lot of 75 resist data already, parses with some players wearing some resist gear would be nice. The raw .txt combat log is quickest to work with if you have it, though WWS links are fine too - unless I'm missing something I just have to copy/paste only 100 entries at a time.

Some particularly informative amounts to shoot for would be the "expected" thresholds given in the updated first post. At 125 resistance, for example, it should be impossible to get a 0% resist, and only 3 resist amounts should be possible due to being right on a 20% average. If a log where someone is positive their resist is 125 the entire fight shows this not to be the case, the 500 number would likely be inaccurate.

#31 frmorrison

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Posted 10 February 2009 - 11:33 PM

This is for more data for your study.

This log has a 25-man Sarth 3D is in there with Orthogonal (Feral) using 330ish FR, I don't remember if that includes 130 FR Aura. He seemed to take less damage overall.

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#32 Shamgarr

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Posted 11 February 2009 - 05:39 PM

No new Sapphiron parse yet, but after doing a lot of OS3D last night with 337 FR and reviewing logs, I'm pretty sure I took some 20% breaths with the fire resistance totem still active, and I don't believe I ever got a 60% resist.

If accurate, this would indicate that 334 is not the threshold for eliminating 20% resists, and the constant is higher than 500. So as always, continue to take the posted thresholds with a grain of salt.

#33 Rasmfrackn

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 01:42 AM

All of the parses I used for my own crunching have expired, but here's one histogram from a 417 Frost Resist on Sapph25.

Posted Image

The bin labels are a bit off because of the way the base damage gets resisted and then the damage reductions apply, so instead of 40% resisted it actually looks like ~43% resisted, but every resist value was in a multiple of 160 (10%).

As you can see, at 417 he had about 40 out of 400 resists at the 30% level. (And about 5 out of 400 at the 70% level.) So while 415 looks like it should be the threshold to remove 30% resists, it's clearly not. Also his overall average damage resisted was right around 48%.

I'll get a fresh sapphiron on Sunday if you don't have more data by then. I'll be sure to collect resist values from other raid members as well.

#34 Shamgarr

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 06:59 AM

Well 415 was just the guess, based on 5*level before we had any boss data. The first Sapphiron parse indicated a constant closer to 500.

If resisted amounts in that chart were based off damage taken, I'm guessing the 70% values were actually another resisted amount but with some damage reduction CD active. On Sapphiron all you have to do is take the resisted amount divided by 1600 (1200 in the 10 man). There are only 4 possible partial resists at a given amount of resistance.

Tonight I got 2090 samples at 130 Frost Resist. The distribution was:

10%: 0.2397
20%: 0.4943
30%: 0.2555
40%: 0.0105

Average: 0.2037

Sticking with the assumption that the formula is correct and there is 0 spell penetration involved, the presence of the 40% resists means the constant is below 520. The Sartharion numbers I have, while harder to work with and not terribly conclusive, do seem to indicate a constant above 505.

This at least puts some limits on the required resistance thresholds.

For a minimum resist of 30%, for instance, it looks like the required resistance is between 338 and 346.

As far as the unknown constant, the only multiple of 5 possibilities left are 510 and 515. While it certainly doesn't "have" to be a multiple of 5 it's a place to start. As mentioned earlier, the closest thing to a "conclusive" answer on the constant is finding a resistance that only produces 3 possibilities over a large sample size, or simply eliminating enough possible values until only 1 is left.

Having a resistance equal to the predicted constant would always produce such a situation, though it can be harder to hit precise resist values that high right now for testing.

If the constant is 510, 340 should be such a resistance. If it is 515, there are no such resistances other than 515. In 10 man Sapph this week I'll try to get some values to narrow it further.

#35 Schnappi

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 10:33 AM

If bosses work with a certain constant then 515 sounds like a nice arbitrary value because it is exactly 100 more than bosslevel*5.

#36 Rasmfrackn

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Posted 14 February 2009 - 12:37 AM

Well 415 was just the guess, based on 5*level before we had any boss data. The first Sapphiron parse indicated a constant closer to 500.

If resisted amounts in that chart were based off damage taken, I'm guessing the 70% values were actually another resisted amount but with some damage reduction CD active. On Sapphiron all you have to do is take the resisted amount divided by 1600 (1200 in the 10 man). There are only 4 possible partial resists at a given amount of resistance.


Ah yes, sorry. I made those before I knew what I was looking for. I won't paste in the whole data set, which would just be evil, but this is the consolidation:

38x (360 resisted, 720 taken) (33.33%)
8x (360 resisted, 504 taken) (41.66%)

135x (480 resisted, 617 taken) (43.76%)
32x (480 resisted, 432 taken (52.63%)

119x (600 resisted, 514 taken) (53.86%)
28x (600 resisted, 360 taken) (62.5%)

35x (720 resisted, 411 taken) (63.66%)
5x (720 resisted, 288 taken) (71.43%)

Total points: 400 exactly
Total 30% resists: 46 (11.5%)
Total 40% resists: 167 (41.75%)
Total 50% resists: 147 (36.75%)
Total 60% resists: 43 (10.75%)

I stripped out the text so I can't account for the two different taken values per resisted amount, but the smaller values are all 70% of the larger ones, so I'm betting it's Divine Guardian or something similar.

Rasm

#37 Mijae

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 07:38 AM

Ah yes, sorry. I made those before I knew what I was looking for. I won't paste in the whole data set, which would just be evil, but this is the consolidation:

38x (360 resisted, 720 taken) (33.33%)
8x (360 resisted, 504 taken) (41.66%)

135x (480 resisted, 617 taken) (43.76%)
32x (480 resisted, 432 taken (52.63%)

119x (600 resisted, 514 taken) (53.86%)
28x (600 resisted, 360 taken) (62.5%)

35x (720 resisted, 411 taken) (63.66%)
5x (720 resisted, 288 taken) (71.43%)

Total points: 400 exactly
Total 30% resists: 46 (11.5%)
Total 40% resists: 167 (41.75%)
Total 50% resists: 147 (36.75%)
Total 60% resists: 43 (10.75%)

I stripped out the text so I can't account for the two different taken values per resisted amount, but the smaller values are all 70% of the larger ones, so I'm betting it's Divine Guardian or something similar.

Rasm


Those numbers also look like they should be for 10 man, not 25. The 360, 600, and 720 resists would not be possible in 25 man, but they would for 10 (based on 1600/1200 damage and 10% resist intervals). Perhaps this data was taken during the time before the damage values were fixed and set to current?

#38 Erusdruidum

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 03:37 PM

Ah yes, sorry. I made those before I knew what I was looking for. I won't paste in the whole data set, which would just be evil, but this is the consolidation:

38x (360 resisted, 720 taken) (33.33%)
8x (360 resisted, 504 taken) (41.66%)

135x (480 resisted, 617 taken) (43.76%)
32x (480 resisted, 432 taken (52.63%)

119x (600 resisted, 514 taken) (53.86%)
28x (600 resisted, 360 taken) (62.5%)

35x (720 resisted, 411 taken) (63.66%)
5x (720 resisted, 288 taken) (71.43%)

Total points: 400 exactly
Total 30% resists: 46 (11.5%)
Total 40% resists: 167 (41.75%)
Total 50% resists: 147 (36.75%)
Total 60% resists: 43 (10.75%)

Rasm


On the 60% resists, you had 35 and 5, so it should be 40 total for 10%, not 43 for 10.75%. I assume this is from the same 417 resist set as the above post?

#39 Rasmfrackn

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 04:41 PM

On the 60% resists, you had 35 and 5, so it should be 40 total for 10%, not 43 for 10.75%. I assume this is from the same 417 resist set as the above post?


You're right. I'm not sure how hard it is to add 35 and 5, but it explains why my total-sum double check was 0.75% over. :)

It was a 10-man sapph kill... the resist rates and such should all be the same though, with just the damage values being 75% of the 25-man version.

#40 Melthu

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 05:06 PM

Here are a few more numbers for 362 resistance:

30% resist: 173/878 = 19.7%
40% resist: 369/878 = 42.0%
50% resist: 294/878 = 33.5%
60% resist: 42/878 = 4.8%




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