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Shaman: Simple Questions/Simple Answers


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#1561 Jessamy

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 01:06 AM

Your overload chance is listed in your spellbook under Mastery in your general tab. For example, if your overload chance is 21%, then if you hit 5 targets with a CL cast, you will have 5/3 * 21 = 35% chance for an overload proc. However if you're only hitting one target, you'll have 1/3 * 21 = 7% chance for an overload proc, much less than the 21% chance you'd get with LB.

#1562 sawyer7as

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 08:08 PM

Ok, I've searched the forums, tried google and other sites and been unable to find a direct answer to this so as much as I have tried to avoid posting a question here it goes: Whats the cap for mastery?

#1563 Ragnarox

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Posted 11 November 2010 - 09:56 PM

Ok, I've searched the forums, tried google and other sites and been unable to find a direct answer to this so as much as I have tried to avoid posting a question here it goes: Whats the cap for mastery?


From a blue post that I can't seem to find:

In the course of finalizing all of the Masteries for the various talent specializations, we will make sure that, in the expected gear a player can acquire from the final Cataclysm raid tiers, the player will not crash into a “hard cap” unless they go out of their way to stack Mastery more than is reasonable. This may require redesigning some of the Masteries as the rest of the class designs are finalized.



#1564 Harne

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 06:27 AM

Your overload chance is listed in your spellbook under Mastery in your general tab. For example, if your overload chance is 21%, then if you hit 5 targets with a CL cast, you will have 5/3 * 21 = 35% chance for an overload proc. However if you're only hitting one target, you'll have 1/3 * 21 = 7% chance for an overload proc, much less than the 21% chance you'd get with LB.


Hopefully this isn't splitting hairs, but this is a common misconception. You can't just multiply the chance per target (7% in this example) by the number of targets that it hits to get the true chance to proc. Instead you have to raise the chance that a proc WON'T happen to the power of the number of chances. So, for five targets it would be 0.93 ^ 5 which is roughly 69.6% chance to not proc, or about a 30.5% proc chance.

Incidentally, if they really do use LB overload chance divided by 3, then even hitting three targets with chain lightning will be slightly worse odds of a proc than hitting one with a normal lightning bolt. For this 21% example, Chain Lightning would have only a roughly 19.5% chance to proc if hitting 3 targets. However, it is possible that they actually use some value slightly higher than 1/3rd in order to give an equal chance.

#1565 Stelmaria

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 12:01 PM

My statistics math is a bit rusty, but wouldn't you use p^n only if you could get no more than one cl-overload per cast? The way I understand your math, it would give you a 0.93^5 = 69.6% chance to not proc an overload at all, but you would be neglecting the chances to proc 2, 3, 4 or even 5 overloads. Their respective chances are of course a lot smaller than the 7% in this example, but they exist.
During my tests I have seen up to four overloads when hitting fire target dummies with cl.

#1566 Sacerdos

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Posted 12 November 2010 - 09:25 PM

My statistics math is a bit rusty, but wouldn't you use p^n only if you could get no more than one cl-overload per cast? The way I understand your math, it would give you a 0.93^5 = 69.6% chance to not proc an overload at all, but you would be neglecting the chances to proc 2, 3, 4 or even 5 overloads. Their respective chances are of course a lot smaller than the 7% in this example, but they exist.
During my tests I have seen up to four overloads when hitting fire target dummies with cl.


100% - (chance not to proc any CL overloads) would give you the chance to proc 1-5 overloads.

If you wanted the chance of only one overload, you would use (5 choose 1) * P * (1 - P)^4, 2 is (5 choose 2) * P^2 * (1 - P)^3, etc. Binomial distribution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia explains this in full if you want to brush up.

#1567 Timetodance

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Posted 23 November 2010 - 04:58 AM

I have a few questions regarding Unleash Elements - specifically for Enhancement Shaman.

Dual-wielding Windfury/Flametongue:
Does Unleash Wind work off the melee(yellow) hit table, or the spell hit table?
Are the hit rates for Unleash Wind and Unleash Fire linked? i.e. If Wind misses, can Fire still hit? If Wind hits, can Fire still miss?


#1568 Akumasama

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Posted 23 November 2010 - 09:30 AM

[cut]
would not reduce the other ch bounces, riptide does not increase bounces and I'd be surprised if this did anything to the bounces.

Sorry for the necroquote, but taking a chance to ask a simple question about Riptide's HOT powering up CH.
The post I quoted was probably (?) written before patch 3.2, because I remember after it, Riptide used to power up all of the CH jumps.
For my understanding (never tested things, just giving my interpretation of things) jumps before 3.2 were calculated on the basic amount healed by the Main Hit of CH, before any other sort of additional power up. (not talking about straight powerups like +SP etc, of course)
From 3.2 onwards they were calculated after. So if you powered up the first hit consuming Riptide's HoT, you were indirectly powering up the following jumps as well (altough not by a straight amount of 25%).

I remember reading it on these boards, and I remember reading it on a TTT guide, which is still online and updated for 3.3, and confirms what I'm saying. Can see it HERE.

Recently I read a post of a very competent player saying that, again, Riptide's HOT powers up only the first hit, and that CH jumps are calculated BEFORE that powerup, so wether you use it or not it doesn't affect them at all.
Is this player right? Suppose if he is then it means Blizzard changed things with 4.0, along with the new built-in 4 targets and lower reduction for jumps.
If he is indeed right then, which I surely hope not, I wonder if this is meant? Or if Blizzard just didn't notice? And I wonder if this affects our mastery. Is only the first hit powered up by Deep Healing? If jumps are really calculated before any form of external powerup to the spell (aside from straight +SP ones) then I'm afraid it will be the same for Deep Healing's bonus as well, applying only to the main hit and not to the jumps.



Edit:
Following a nice PM from Jessamy, who gave me an awesome idea, I did some tests yesterday with a warlock friend.
Together for around 30 mins we tested both things: the effects of CH jumps and Deep Healing (mastery), the effects of Riptide's HoT power up on CH jumps.

Test environment
The test has been performed with both me an the warlock remaining in the same gear, avoiding any form of external buff. Data has been checked with Mik Scrolling Battle text.
Critical hits from jumps have of course been filtered.
Test went on for around 30 minutes.
The test simply was about casting CH on myself (full health) and letting the jump go off on the warlock, who was constantly keeping his health low with Lifetap.
Last but not least, in this test I've been actually testing just the first jump, assuming that if a mechanic works for the first jump, it should supposedly work for the rest of them as well.
Test has been performed with glyph of chain heal.

Q: Does Deep Healing affect CH jumps?
A: Yes, it does. My CH jumps ranged from ~3150 close to 100% health, to ~3900 at lowest health (I didn't check the %, but it was really low, and the lowest the warlock managed to achieve and to keep through the use of lifetap).
The highest number I've seen is ~4000, but normally numbers were around 3900.

Q: Does the Riptide HoT powerup affect all jumps of CH, or just the main hit?
A: It affects all of them. At lowest health jumps were ~3900, with the riptide powerup they raised up to ~4800 (highest I've seen being ~5000)


I'm too dumb to get to further conclusions, but I guess we could assume that the jump calculation takes into consideration the value of the powered up Main Hit, and not the value of the raw one. According to me jumps do not get directly powered up by the HoT consumption, it's just a consequence of the main hit being stronger, and the jump being 70% of a 25% more powerful hit.
Actually not 70% because of the glyph... but my head gets cloudy from here onwards, I'm unable to determine when exactely the glyph's change of % does occur.

Hope this data helped everyone, it sure helped me! :)

#1569 Hidden

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Posted 26 November 2010 - 08:14 PM

Enhancement:
Do you still use Windfury MH after the patch?

Flametongue now seems to scale with AP and deal ~2.5 times the damage it did before. In the post-patch logs I've seen Flametongue OH does ~double the damage of WF MH, so why don't you put it on your MH as well?
The extra FT procs from LL should be marginal so the proc itself should greatly outdamage WF.
While WF grants additional chances to proc Maelstrom Weapon, FT increases the damage of all your spells by granting extra SP.

In the Enhsim thread they're already trying to find out the exact scaling but logs would indicate WF to be obsolete now, wouldn't they?

#1570 titansol20

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Posted 26 November 2010 - 11:48 PM

While it might be a Dps increase, FT/FT is a damage loss. as well; Blizzard really isn't in favor of dual imbues on our weapons. The main issue isn't that FT is gaining from AP, as much as it is from mastery. There is a pretty sizable debate going on about whether or not FT/FT Caster MH/ Melee OH is either out doing Melee MH/OH, and whether or not it will be superior in future raid tiers. Blizzard has stated they don't want that to happen. Currently it is too early to tell, since the beta is either closing or has closed, and the sims out there haven't really been as accurate as those used on live, since the beta was still plagued by unseen or untested bugs that are always not seen until sometime after it hits live.

#1571 Rouncer

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Posted 27 November 2010 - 12:19 AM

Hold off on saying FT/FT is a damage loss until people actually prove it one way or the other. We think that at 85 it will be equal to WF/FT or slightly inferior when running with a caster mainhand in tier 11 gear but that is also including Unleash Elements. Without UE and with our level 80 amounts of mastery, I really wouldn't be that surprised to see a caster mainhand running FT/FT outperform WF/FT with equal ilevel agility weapons. Even with UE no one is sure which will end up being the best options for tier 12 gear levels and up or if a specific set of tier 11 stuff running a caster mainhand will end up beating all other available options.

At this point I just hope they do something to make it more clear that we are supposed to run WF/FT with agility weapons. GC saying that they prefer us that way is nice and all but that and a couple of bucks will get you a cup of coffee. Guessing there will be a patch with the launch in 2 weeks and hopefully that will have something for us then that will remove caster MHs and FT/FT from serious consideration.

#1572 Hidden

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Posted 27 November 2010 - 03:53 PM

My question was mostly regarding level 80 using a "normal" setup and no caster MH since I've only found discussions about 85 while at level 80 you're missing one big advantage of WF, the UE haste proc.

Thanks for your answers anyway; I guess there simply hasn't been any greater theorycrafting for the remaining two weeks before cataclysm.

#1573 Rouncer

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Posted 27 November 2010 - 04:00 PM

With a normal setup you would lose a lot of FT procs to the ICD making it unlikely to outperform WF/FT without conscious effort to avoid letting your weapon's swings sync up. Really doubt it would be worth the trouble since WF also provides a significant increase in the number of MW procs.

#1574 titansol20

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Posted 28 November 2010 - 12:19 PM

I have done many tests on dummies and in raids, if anything wf/wf and wf/ft always out perform any other setup I have tried to include the reverse and as well as using fb in the mix. Ft/ft usually gives higher dps, but the damage overall is always out done by either wf/ft or wf/wf; even wf/fb has higher numbers. You can test it for your self if you would like, since I currently don't have any numbers to back up my personal tests.

#1575 Jessamy

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Posted 06 December 2010 - 01:07 PM

Locking this thread. All future shaman discussion should take place in the new Cataclysm discussion thread. With the launching of the new threads, rules will be aggressively enforced as per this announcement:

http://elitistjerks....taclysm_coming/




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