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There was an interesting theorycraft post on this very topic I believe somewhere in this thread (I can't find it at the moment, but I'm nearly positive I saw it on these forums). Anyway, here is a start on a theorycraft of this:
Chance to NOT proc the HoT on a 4-hit CH cast (w/o ELW Glyph):
0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = 0.4096 = 40.96% chance to NOT proc the HoT; Conversely yields a (1-0.4096) = 59.04% chance to Proc HoT
Chance to NOT proc the HoT on a 4-hit CH cast (W ELW Glyph):
0.75*0.75*0.75*0.75 = 0.3164 = 31.64% chance to NOT proc the HoT; Conversely yields a (1-0.3164) = 68.36% chance to Proc
Increased chance to proc HoT on CH cast: 68.36%-59.04% = 9.32% increase.
I'll make a few assumptions here, you can take them as you will:
A. Healing Breakdown:
(1) CH will make up about 45% of our casts
(2) LHW will make up about 30% of our casts
(3) RT will make up about 12.5% of our casts
(4) HW will make up about 7.5% of our casts
(5) ES will make up about 5% of our casts
(1) Raid Buffed SP = 3500
(2) In ICC (+5% healing)
(3) You are spec'd into Purification (+10% healing)
(4) You have ToL aura (+6% healing)
(5) No one in your raid ever goes below 35% (Due to blessing of the eternals altering proc rate).
(6) Your haste rating is at or above the softcap (1269).
If we accept all of this, we can make an intelligent guess at a proc chance increase:
(0.45*0.0932+0.3*0.05+0.125*0.05+0.075*0.05+0.05*0.0)= 0.06694 = 6.694% chance to proc EL HoT*
*I assume here (for the sake of being conservative) that EL HoT can ONLY proc off of the initial heal of RT, not the HoT. If it can proc off of the HoT, the proc chance increase can be calculated using the same methodology as the CH calculation with 5 ticks+ 1 initial heal (6 total heals) to be: 7.119%.
With the Gearing/SP/Buffs assumption, we can calculate additional healing done by the increased procs:
ELW Healing formula (from wowwiki) is: (BHA+(BH*0.8*1.88*0.45)) (to calculate per tick, divide by 4)
Where BHA = Base Heal Amount (692 at lvl 80)
BH = Bonus Healing
For our shaman with the above bonus healing values, the ELW should heal for 3060.8 over 12 seconds. Adding in ToL, Purification, and ICC buff, this number becomes: 3060.8*1.1*1.06*1.05 = 3747.34 over 12 seconds.
For a 5 minute fight with continuous casting and assuming your average cast time will be around 1.33 seconds using the healing distribution above (I tried to factor in 2T10, but it might be a little off; I also factored in WoA totem and 3% haste from ret paladins), this you will have a total of: 225.5 total casts.
Without the glyph, we have a ~21%* chance to proc a HoT, so we could expect about 47 EL procs.
*Factoring in CH casts
With the glyph, we can expect a 20%+6.694% chance to proc a HoT, so we could expect about 60 EL procs.
Additional Healing: Assuming 3747.34 healing done per proc, we would get an additional 13*3747.34 = 48715.42 healing done over 5 minutes, or 162.38 HPS.
Notes and Limitations:
1. This does not factor in T10 4pc bonus procing the HoT.
2. This does not factor in RT ticks procing the HoT
3. This is in an ideal world, assuming 100% casting uptime.
This is also assuming 100% of the HoT is *not* overheal, isn't it? I thought ELW was crippled by the fact that it's almost always going to do at least some overheal, considering how it gets applied.